The Champions League Round of 16 is back for the second legs and LB has some fancies for Wednesday night’s fixtures.
Tottenham Hotspur v AC Milan
Wed 8th Mar 20:00
This game is tough to call. Spurs’ domestic form is bordering on the toxic and with four losses in the last six their grip on Top 4 is beginning to slip. Progression in the Champions League could prove the perfect tonic for Conte’s side but at odds-on they offer little appeal.
AC Milan are having a torrid season by most measures. They are 18 points behind Napoli at the summit of Serie A, languishing in 5th place, and it is hard to see how this squad managed to win the league last season. They looked to have turned a corner, with four consecutive wins (to nil) to round out February, but a surprise reversal at the hands of Fiortina at the weekend is a cause for concern.
The Rossoneri were comfortable winners in the first leg and 31/10 looks more than fair for them to win again here. However, I have a suspicion Spurs will show up on Wednesday night, so I’m going to let that one slide. Instead I’m backing Harry Kane for 2+ SOT. Kane is going through something of a drought in terms of goals, by his own standards at least, but he is still regularly firing off shots. At even money to hit the target twice the Spurs man is too well priced to ignore.
Bayern Munich v PSG
Wed 8th Mar 20:00
This is more of a gut feel bet but I have an inkling PSG will upset the German champions here. I backed Munich in the first leg, but the Parisians look a different team now. Oddly, the loss of Neymar has improved Galtier’s side and the Mbappe-Messi partnership is blossoming.
Munich are unsurprisingly top of the Bundesliga but this is not another business-as-usual season for FC Hollywood. Springtime in the league is usually little more than procession for Bayern but this year they are in a real scrap with Dortmund and only ahead on goal difference. Part of that is down to an uncharacteristically porous defense. Bayern have conceded two or more goals on ten occasions this season – including to mid-table sides such as Mönchengladbach, Hertha, Augsberg and Mainz.
PSG have recently been setting up to counter-attack and that could play to Mbappe’s speed. Considering Bayern tend to dominate possession at the Allianz Arena this would be no surprise here. The Frenchman is evens for 2+ SOT and that is my second bet of the night.
Smart Bets
Tottenham Hotspur v AC Milan: Harry Kane 2+ SOT @ Evens
Bayern Munich v PSG: Killian Mbappe 2+ SOT @ Evens
The above in a double at 3/1
Bayern Munich v PSG: PSG To Win @ 13/5
