The three tiers of the English Football League continue apace and Gaz’s ante-post bets are starting to look promising. Wrexham look to have adapted to life in League Two and are now unbeaten in seven across all competitions and come into this game on the back of three straight wins. Gaz is still our early season leader in terms of PnL and has picked the best bets across The Championship, League One and League Two.
Shrewsbury v Bristol Rovers
Sat 16 Sep 15:00
Shrewsbury will be happy with their start to the season, picking up three wins in their opening six matches (W3, D0, L3). They come into this game 3 points above Bristol Rovers in the table but I’m not sure that tells the full story. When you dive deeper into The Shrews wins you see they’ve come against Burton, Fleetwood and Cheltenham, who occupy the last 3 places in the division. Those sides have managed a combined 4 points in 18 matches and look like relegation fodder. When Shrewsbury have faced decent opposition they’ve tended to struggle and have failed to score in their 3 losses.
Although Bristol Rovers (W1, D3, L2) currently sit 18th the league, they’ve faced a tough schedule and had their share of bad luck. To illustrate their tough start, five of the six teams they’ve faced currently sit in the top 10 in the table. Joey Barton’s side have a nice style of play and I expect them to dominate this match. Rovers have scored in all but one of their games, and if they take the lead it’ll be an uphill battle for a Shrewsbury side with the lowest expected goals (xG 0.74) in the division.
Gillingham v Morecambe
Sat 16 Sep 15:00
Gillingham returned to the top of the League Two table last weekend with a 1-0 victory over Harrogate. The Gills needed that three points after suffering back-to-back defeats in the weeks prior. Now that they’re back on track, this looks to be a great opportunity for Neal Harris’ team to kick on. One of Gillingham’s features thus far has been their defensive resoluteness. In their 7 league matches they’ve conceded on just 4 occasions (average 0.57 conceded per game), and boast the lowest expected goals against (xGA 0.71) in the division.
Morecambe are the visitors on Saturday and, although they’ve started the season well, their away form has been terrible. The Shrimps have failed to score in their two trips on the road and have conceded five goals in the process. Given neither side are prolific going forward the under 2.5 goals market looks tempting at 4/5, as does a Gillingham win and under 2.5 goals at 11/4. I’m being conservative here though and backing the home win in a single at 4/5.
MK Dons v Stockport
Sat 16 Sep 15:00
I’ve been tracking both of these teams closely this season and feel I have a pretty good read of their form. The MK Dons have featured heavily in my bets so far and have turned into something of a cash cow for this column. Stockport were my ante-post selection to win League Two and, although they’ve had a slow start, I haven’t given up hope on that bet just yet. Both sides have a lot in common, one thing in particular being goals. League matches involving the MK Dons have averaged 3.7 goals per game, with both teams scoring 86% of the time. The Stockport goals per game average is a little lower at 3, with both teams scoring in 71% of those matches.
With the above stats in mind, the obvious bets are either both teams to score (4/6) or over 2.5 goals (4/5). I’m looking for a little more juice though and to me combining the draw with both teams to score looks to be the play at odds of 11/4. I’m also having a small play on MK Dons half-time/draw full-time at 12/1. The Dons are a side that start fast and have opened the scoring in 6 of their 7 league matches. If they can do so again then we should get a sweat off the 12/1.
EFL Betting Tips
Gillingham v Morecambe – Gillingham Win @ 4/5 (2 Points)
Shrewsbury v Bristol Rovers – Bristol Rovers Win @ 29/20 (2 Points)
MK Dons v Stockport – Score Draw @ 11/4 (1 Point)
Above in a Treble @ 18/1 (1 Point)
MK Dons v Stockport – MK Dons half-time/Draw full-time @ 12/1 (0.5 Point)
