The Bookmakers are taking no risks in the EFL this week, but Gaz has got creative and compiled this tempting 18/1 treble.
Norwich v Preston
Sat 8th Oct 15:00
After a slow start to the season (failing to win any of their opening 3 games) Norwich have hit their groove and come into this weekend unbeaten in their last 9 league matches (W7, D2, L0). That run has seen the Canaries move to joint-top of the table (second on goal difference) and an immediate bounce back to the Premier League is looking likely. Home form has been their foundation and they’ve yet to taste defeat at Carrow Road. With a home goals per game average of 2 it’s not hard to see why the Bookmakers have Dean Smith’s men priced at odds-on.
Although Norwich are worthy favourites, this certainly won’t be a stroll in the park against a robust Preston side. North End boast the divisions best defensive record conceding just 4 goals in 12 league games (average of 0.31 GPG). More impressively the Lilywhites are yet to concede a goal in any of their 5 away matches.
Ryan Lowe’s men may struggle to hold onto their unbeaten away record this weekend, but they won’t go down easy. With that in mind I don’t see value in the straight win market where Norwich are priced at 7/10. A couple of bets caught my eye, draw half-time/Norwich full-time (7/2) being one of them but I’ve landed on Norwich win & under 2.5 goals @ 3/1. I can see Preston keeping this tight for a long period with the home side eventually nicking a goal or two. None of Preston’s league matches have had more than two goals and I’m hoping that run continues.
Plymouth v Accrington
Sat 8th Oct 15:00
Plymouth sit top of the League One table and that lofty position is mainly due to their home form. Argyle are yet to drop a point at Home Park (W6, D0, L0), scoring 10 and conceding just two goals. Tuesday’s victory over a decent Sheffield Wednesday side will boost confidence even further and extended a run of 8 games unbeaten (W7, D1, L0).
Accrington are the visitors on Saturday and they’re a side that won’t be short of confidence either. After a run of 6 matches without a victory earlier in the season, Stanley have now won three on the spin and are no write-offs here. That said, none of those recent wins have come against the division’s top sides and that’s my angle here. Plymouth have proven they can mix it with the best and in Ryan Hardie they possess one of the league’s top strikers. The home side should have too much here and Plymouth win & over 1.5 goals @ 11/10 looks a great bet in my opinion.
Swansea v Sunderland
Sat 8th Oct 15:00
This looks like a great game on paper, both sides are battling for the playoff spots and as things stand there’s only one point between them in the league table. Sunderland have yet to really get going with every win followed by a defeat, and more recently, a consistent run of draws (3 back-to-back). The change of manager hasn’t had the desired effect and Tony Mowbray must be worried about his sides ability to score after drawing a blank in their last two games (both at home).
Swansea are in the opposite boat, after a sticky start to the season they’ve started to put a bit of a run together. The Swans have taken 12 points from a possible 15 including 3 wins in a row most recently. The solitary defeat in that run came at the hands of table-toppers Sheffield United (1-0 scoreline) which was probably to be expected. A Swansea Win @ 5/4 is the bet for me and rounds out my treble for this week.
Smart Bets
Norwich v Preston: Norwich Win & Under 2.5 Goals @ 3/1 (3 points)
Plymouth v Accrington: Plymouth Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 11/10 (2 points)
Swansea v Sunderland: Swansea Win @ 5/4 (2 points)
Above in a treble 18/1
