Ligue 1 Predictions: Best Bets As PSG Host Marseille in Le Classique

Ligue 1 Predictions: Best Bets As PSG Host Marseille in Le Classique

Dermot got off to a flier last weekend with an Mbappé goal that set on the way to landing the first All Action Acca of the season last weekend for 68 units. PSG got back to winnings ways in the Champions League and now face another stern test as Marseille roll into town for Le Classique. 

Last week was another dose of pretty bad luck. Mbappé got the week off to a flyer. Rennes was probably a poor selection due to their squad being so thin on numbers. Monaco would have been a nice winner only for them to concede in the 98th minute. This week’s Ligue 1 selections will be a low-variance home treble that hopefully gets things back going in the right direction.

Monaco v Nice Prediction

Fri 22 Sep 20:00

I’d lean Monaco purely on the basis that their home form has been flawless so far: W2-D0-L0-F6-A0. However, Nice’s attack finally clicked in Paris last week. Whilst zero goals conceded looks great, Monaco have given 7 goals up in their 3 away games showing that there is plenty of defensive issues to iron out. Terem Moffi (23/10) could have scored 5 last week and if he continues in that form this could be another high-scoring Ligue 1 game. The books seem to think so too with over 2.5 goals best priced at 8/13.

Nantes v Lorient Prediction

Sat 23 Sep 16:00

Nantes got their season up and running with a win at a struggling Clermont. A win is a win but Les Lanciers really should have beaten Pierre Aristouy’s side. I called Lorient the ‘Coupon Busters’ last week and it came to haunt me when they scored in the 98th minute to draw with Monaco. Les Merlus haven’t scored on the road in Ligue 1 this season which makes them hard to back. That said, the flaws in both defences make BTTS (3/4) a relatively safe play.

Brest v Lyon Prediction

Sat 23 Sep 20:00

Brest being favourites to win tells you how bad things have unraveled at Lyon over the past 2 and a bit seasons. From consistently challenging for the European places in Ligue 1 to only having 2pts from 15 is tough to see from a club that has been run very well for so long. But betting is a game where emotions cost money. Brest have been a far better side this season and currently sit 2nd in the table. Any side that goes to Reims this season and wins is a side to take seriously. Alexandre Lacazette’s return is a big boost to a Lyon side short of leadership. Romain Del Castillo has 3 goals in 5 games and this looks an ideal spot to add to that tally (10/3).

Brest to win @ 6/4

Metz v Strasbourg Prediction

Sun 24 Sep 12:00

Metz had the ultimate backs-to-the-wall win at Lens last week. In football manager games it would be said that Lens had been ‘superkeepered’. 30 shots to 2 but Les Grenats got the 3pts even with only 27% possession. Maintaining that resilience should see them stay in Ligue 1 this season. For all their spending, Strasbourg have been inconsistent so far. No points or goals on the road makes for grim reading but once again they are showing signs of turning La Meinau into a fortress. With Le Racing‘s away form and Metz showing indifference to every team, a home win (10/11) looks the bet in this game.

Lens v Toulouse Prediction

Sun 24 Sep 14:00

Lens’ start to the season surely can’t get any worse? Propping up the table after 5 league games would have been the last thing anyone envisaged after missing out on the Ligue 1 title by a point last term. They did manage to get a draw in the UCL at Sevilla midweek and that might be enough form to get their 1st win of the season. At 8/11 there are a lot safer bets around though. Toulouse only having 6pts from their opening 5 games probably belies how well they have played. In a turn of fate, midfielder Stijn Spierings is set to line up against the side that released him at the start of the week. That bit of insider knowledge available to Carles Martínez might well see them getting something from this game.

Le Havre v Clermont Foot Prediction

Sun 24 Sep 14:00

Le Havre produced a battling display at the Groupama to get a point from their meeting with Lyon last week. It was ex-Clermont (and column) favourite Mohamed Bayo’s Ligue 1 debut for Le Club Doyen. With the Guinean’s power and pace up front, the away side’s susceptibility to the counterattack will be an issue once again. The targetman is certainly of interest in the goalscorer multi’s at 11/4. Pascal Gastien will do well to motivate a side that has been the better side in all 5 games so far (stats-wise) but only have a point to show for it. I’ll back them home side (10/11) to help the visitors keep up their run of ‘clutching defeat from the jaws of victory’.

Le Havre to win @ 10/11

Montpellier v Rennes Prediction

Sun 24 Sep 16:05

There are a number of sides in Ligue 1 that you’d avoid backing on the road. Bruno Genesio’s Rennes are one of them. Their style is very appealing to watch but lends itself to player fatigue if the game is not 3-0 or 4-1 by the 60th minute. They will have some favour in this game as Michel Der Zakarian’s side tend to attack rather than sit back. With the visitors in European action Thursday, it might be too quick of a turnaround to not give up late goals. Les Rouge et Noirs squad is quite thin so rotation isn’t much of an option. There are a couple of angles in this game. I’d favour over 3.5 goals (15/8) and also a home win & BTTS (19/5). That said there is enough juice in just a home win (7/4) on the off chance Rennes makeshift attack doesn’t produce.

Montpellier to win @ 7/4

PSG v Marseille Prediction

Sun 24 Sep 19:45

The big game of the weekend is going to be overshadowed by the walkout of OM manager Marcelino on Wednesday morning. Fan groups seem to have been given too much leeway and power in Ligue 1 clubs over the past few seasons. After a confrontation at training the Spaniard decided this type of influence from the ‘Ultras’ wasn’t for him and the Riviera side are now looking for their 3rd manager in less than 18 months. On the field, however, things weren’t going that bad. Jacques Abardonado steps up for this game as caretaker but not much will be expected of the away side.

Dortmund may have seen how Nice dismantled PSG last Friday but Luis Enrique’s side won quite cosily in the UCL. Any complacency before that loss will have been addressed by the former Spain manager. The return of Marquinhos to the defence is massive boost as Danilo has been simply dreadful when playing as a centre back in a duo rather than a trio. The Parisians have what well could be the French national side’s front three for the next 6 years. With that firepower, those fans who have caused a very good tactician to walk will feel rather sorry for themselves by 22:00 on Sunday. This could be a very lopsided Classique and I’d have PSG at 1/3 for the win, not the 4/6 on offer.

Lille v Reims Prediction

Tue 26 Sep 20:00

Game week 6 will end on Tuesday rather than the usual Sunday finish due to scheduling overlaps with the Rugby World Cup. The state the pitch has been left in at Stade Pierre Mauroy after the rugby games will be a concern for Paulo Fonseca. Both sides tend to transition from front to back at speed so it will be interesting to see if a more direct style is needed to offset the potentially poor underfoot conditions.

LOSC’s defence cost them 3pts at Rennes last week but fortunately for them, Reims seem to lack a Ligue 1 quality striker to punish them. Will Still will have his side well organised to get at the Lille backline but ultimately it will the home side’s quality in attack getting them over the line again (10/11).

Smart Bets

Brest to win @ 6/4

Le Havre to win @ 10/11

Montpellier to win @ 7/4

Above in a treble (best priced) : a little under 12/1


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French football connoisseur and Irish racing power house. He brings a certain je ne sais quoi to The Accademics with his flair for hidden gems in Ligue 1. When he’s not absorbed in all things France, Dermot is a Sunday warrior who splits his time between Irish horse racing and the NFL. Makes up one half of the unofficial SRD 49ers fan club.
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