Dermot went close last week with the width of the crossbar letting down his weekly treble. There’s a couple of big Ligue 1 derbies this week with Monaco Vs Marseille and Nantes Vs Rennes.
As friend in college used to say, “nearly never pulled a cow” and nearly winning all selections isn’t the same as winning all selections. Montpellier beating Rennes would have been lucky but given some of the bad beats this season I’d have taken it. It’s a massive week for some sides with Lens and Lyon trying to get out of the relegation spots in game week 7. This week also see’s the clash of 2nd Vs 1st, which amazingly after 6 games is Nice Vs Brest.
Strasbourg Vs Lens Prediction
Fri 29 Sep 20:00
I mentioned last week that Rennes were a team I wouldn’t be comfortable betting on away from home. Lens are in a similar boat even if Franck Haise side have been better on their travels over the past few years. I’m not a fan of betting the Friday games (except for Lille 1-0 last season). Both of these teams have been under performing and both come into the game off a win. It smacks of one of those Ligue 1 games that should be under 2.5 goals and ends up over 5.5 (like Nantes 3-3 Monaco or Nantes 5-3 Lorient).
Clermont v PSG Prediction
Sat 30 Sep 16:00
The big PSG news is that Kylian Mbappé will sit out this game after suffering a minor knee injury. Goncalo Ramos will deputise after scoring twice in a rout over Marseille last week. He could well score again but given Clermont’s inability to stop the counter attack I’d look to speedsters Kolo Muani (2/1) or Dembele (5/2) to get on the scoresheet. Clermont’s stay in Ligue 1 is seriously under pressure after only gathering 1 point in the opening 6 games despite being the better team in the stats column for each game.
Monaco v Marseille Prediction
Sat 30 Sep 20:00
Marseille’s season has completely imploded after a week of complete idiocy from their ‘fans’. Marcelino is gone, most of the players now want to follow, Gennaro Gattuso has signed as manager and they were thumped 4-0 by PSG in Le Classique. This week should see the fans frustration increase when their actions see their rudderless team succumb to Monaco in a Cote d’Azur derby. The Principality side lost the actual Derby de la Cote d’Azur at home to Nice (after missing 2 penalties) but couldn’t have found a better spot to beat their (relatively) local rivals.
Monaco to win @ 5/4
Reims v Lyon Prediction
Sun 1 Oct 12:00
At this time last year if you said this would be 5th Vs 17th in Ligue 1 you’d have assumed the team in 5th was Lyon. Not so. Will Still continues to impress this season, amplified by a huge win over Lille in the Pierre-Mauroy last weekend. The head coaches ability to adjust his side to give them the best chance to win or be competitive in every game may see him picked up by a bigger club before the season ends.
This is a tough game for new manager Fabio Grosso to start off with. Still a relatively young manager, OL is big step up in terms of expectation versus his previous roles. The positive side for him is 5% improvement each week is going to be loved by the Lyon faithful that have been put through the ringer the past 3 years. He should have enough talent at his disposable to see his new side finish midtable. Unfortunately this a tough game to start and I’ll be backing a home win.
Reims to win @ 21/20
Nice v Brest Prediction
Sun 1 Oct 14:00
It will be clash of second versus first in the Ligue 1 table at the Allianz Rivera on Sunday. Nice have to be the play in this game even if no team have burned my pocked more in the past 3 years. OGC have played a far tougher group of teams so far. Brest haven’t had such a tough run and failed on their only effort when losing to Marseille (before they imploded). It’s hard to knock what Eric Roy’s side have done, beating those sides you have a chance to beat is all anyone can ask. I’ve been betting on Dante’s age and speed being an issue ever since week 1 and it still hasn’t happened. The veteran’s presence seems to be enough to see Francesco Farioli’s have the best defensive record in Ligue 1. I see them grinding out another low scoring victory on Sunday but 4/6 is a little skinny to have a bet on.
Le Havre v Lille Foot Prediction
Sun 1 Oct 14:00
Le Havre did the business for the column last week, scoring 2 goals against Clermont within the first 7 minutes. This is such a tough game to gauge though. Lille are the better side overall but seem to be missing something to push them into the top 6 or top 4 of Ligue 1. They have dominated the midfield battle in most games but it doesn’t contribute enough to both ends of the field. Paulo Fonseca still hasn’t got a settled defence which took another hit to it when Samuel Umtiti got injured in the 2-1 loss to Reims. Le Havre have scored in all home games and Lille have scored in all away games so BTTS @ 10/11 with Bet365 is certainly backable.
Both teams to score @ 10/11
Toulouse v Metz Prediction
Sun 1 Oct 14:00
Three weeks ago Toulouse 6pts from 4 Ligue 1 games looked great. 2 games later and that 6pts looks precarious with only 3 sides below them in the table. They put up a decent showing in their opening Europa League game which was sandwiched between 2 away games to Marseille and then Lens. So far this season Carles Martinez side have gone on the attack in games they have been favourites in whilst putting up a defensive front when underdogs. They are slight favourites in this game but the loss of Zakaria Aboukhlal through injury removes a lot of dynamism in attack.
Metz come into the game off loss in the Alsace Derby. A game in which they should have won. It will be interesting to see their response. Toulouse won’t be as potent without the aforementioned Aboukhlal and Metz are not ones to sit back. I’d lean to an away win (evens) but it’s a game I have no real interest in betting on.
Lorient v Montpellier Prediction
Sun 1 Oct 16:05
Lorient now have the joint worst defensive record in Ligue 1 after losing 5-3 to fellow Brittany side Nantes last week. Their Ligue 1 form at la Moustoir has been good however, giving hope that they won’t be so poor at the back again. Montpellier were the crossbar away from sitting 9th in the table and landing last week’s treble. Wahbi Khazri’s thunderbolt of shot against Rennes would have stolen the 3pts. This is tough game to call but it could turn out to be an open affair.
Rennes v Nantes Prediction
Sun 1 Oct 20:00
Another Derby de la Bretagne this week (which oddly can include any two of 8 teams!). Rennes have dominated this fixture winning 4 of the last 6 meetings with one draw. Bruno Genesio’s side are unbeaten this season but have drawn 5 of their first 6 games. With Martin Terrier and Arnaud Kalimeundo out injured, Amine Gouiri has lead the line. He only has 1 goal in Ligue 1 however, hence the high number of draws.
Les Canaries are defying my predication of relegation after back to back wins. I’d imagine that run will end should Gouiri find his shooting boots this weekend as Rennes continue to dominate most games. A home victory is unbackable at 8/15 though.
Smart Bets
Monaco to win @ 5/4
Reims to win @ 21/20
Le Havre Vs Lille – Both Teams to Score @ 10/11
Above in a treble (best priced) : just under 15/2
Dermot publishes his Ligue 1 tips here every Thursday. Follow Dermot and TheACCAdemics to get all our weekly football betting tips first!
