Unusually for Ligue 1 the biggest game of the weekend is on Friday night as PSG host Nice. Dermot has a bet in that game as well as two others later in the weekend.
Game week 4 was a tough one to take. Toulouse were 2-0 up, Reims 2-1 up and Lens had a stone wall penalty to save some grace not given. That’s the joy of betting on Ligue 1 though. The chaotic nature of the league means better prices so you just have to roll with it and know there will be a few days you made the right choices but things didn’t work out. With most sides coming out of the International break without any injury worries, let’s review the full slate of games in Ligue 1 Game Week 5:
Paris S-G v Nice Prediction
Fri 15 Sep 20:00
Nice have made an unbeaten start to Ligue 1 with a win and 3 draws. They have been mightily dour to watch in that spell. There were signs of their attacking potential in their 2-0 win over Strasbourg. Any side with Moffi, Laborde and Diop should be competitive in any Ligue 1 game. With the exception of this one.
In my season preview I said I didn’t think Luis Enrique would succeed at PSG. That was more on the UCL side of things. In the league the Parisians have the potential to steamroll the entire season unbeaten. Ousmane Dembele, Randal Kolo Muani and Bradley Barcola have all been added to an already potent attack since I wrote the preview. All these additions take a bit of focus off the main man, Kylian Mbappé who is an amazing price of 4/5 to score anytime.
Kylian Mbappé to score anytime @ 4/5
Rennes v Lille Prediction
Sat 16 Sep 16:00
Bruno Genesio’s side’s start to the season indicates Les Rouge et Noirs weakness will be their away form. Draws at Lens and Brest aren’t overly bad results. Their strength is their form at the Riazhon. They have lost Jeremy Doku’s explosiveness but have enough replacements to be a force in Ligue 1.
Lille have made a decent start to the season considering the eye test rather than stats show a defence that’s a disaster waiting to happen. It may not happen in this game but the home side should be able to win the midfield battle. It has been the dominance of Lille’s midfield that has them 6th in the table, rather than a potent attack or tough defensive unit.
Rennes to win @ 11/10
Lens v Metz Prediction
Sat 16 Sep 20:00
On purely positions and Ligue 1 points you’d imagine the away side would be favourites. Lens though are big favourites at an unbackable 8/15 to win the game. They should get their season back on track with the visit of Metz though. You would have to worry about how quickly they downed tools in Monaco two weeks ago. Elye Wahi has the perfect game to get his first goal for the club (29/20).
After an opening day blow out at Rennes (lost 5-1), Metz have secured 5pts in their last 3 games. Come from behind draws at home to Marseille and Reims along with a win at Clermont is an excellent start to the campaign. In a team short of stars, their collective effort may be enough to frustrate Lens, and prolong Franck Haise side’s poor start to the season even more. This is no bet game for me with a lean to BTTS @ 5/6
Lorient v Monaco Prediction
Sun 17 Sep 12:00
The leaders travel to Brittany to play the Ligue 1 “Coupon Busters”. Lorient managed a draw at PSG, another at home to Nice, beat Lille at home and completed their opening 4 games by being humiliated by Le Havre. Had they not been beaten so easily in the last game there would be some appeal in the double chance market (Lorient/Draw @ 19/20).
As it stands, that Le Havre game will be a blueprint for other sides to break down a previously rigid home defence and who better than Ligue 1 top scorers Monaco to do it. The Principality side have scored 13 goals in their opening 4 games while at home, Adi Hutter’s side haven’t conceded a goal. On the road however they have conceded 5, with 3 of those coming from just 3 shots on target at Nantes (in a 3-3 draw). With that in mind I think a Monaco win and BTTS looks to be backable at 12/5
Monaco to win & BTTS @ 12/5
Clermont Foot v Nantes Prediction
Sun 17 Sep 14:00
A game of two teams with only two other teams below them in the Ligue 1 table. Both will have been encouraged with the resilience to grind out a point in their last games but this is a game I’ve no interest in putting any money on in terms of the outcome. Moses Simon might finally get his season up and running as Clermont have been terrible against the counter attack so far. At 23/4 with Unibet he may be worth a small punt.
Strasbourg v Montpellier Prediction
Sun 17 Sep 14:00
Michel Der Zakarian will be disappointed his Montpellier side have only 4 points from the opening 4 games. They have managed to conceded a goal in 3 of those games within the first 10 minutes. Whilst hypothetical, not conceding those early goals would see them on 7pts and sitting in the top 6. On the balance of play they should have won all 4 games which tells you the potential for this side if they can cut out the mistakes.
Strasbourg appear to have turned Stade de la Meinau into a fortress again after wins over Lyon and Toulouse. The big worry for them is the loss of creativity in midfield. Jean-Ricner Bellegarde has been sold to Wolves in the EPL. Over his past 33 games for Le Racing he contributed 5 goals but a massive 11 assists. New manager Patrick Vieira hasn’t quite figured out what his preferred starting side is yet to complicate things even more. This is a hard game to pick a bet on though as most for arguments have an equally strong against argument. I’d lean to an away win given it’s 2/1 in a lot of places which seems on the high side.
Reims v Brest Prediction
Sun 17 Sep 14:00
This is a clash that not many would have predicted being the meeting of 4th place Vs 5th place in the Ligue 1 table after 4 games. With both teams losing their best attacking talents over the summer (Balogun for Reims, Honorat for Brest) these have been impressive starts to the season. Teddy Teuma has been excellent as a goalscoring midfielder for Reims with 3 goals and 2 assists in 4 appearances since joining over the summer.
Brest have only conceded 3 goals, which puts them on par with PSG and only bettered by Nice. Brassier and Chardonnet sound like a Soho restaurant instead of one of the best central defence pairings in Ligue 1. Romain del Castillo has the led the attack (3 goals, 1 assist), having played on both wings, up front and in the number 10 positions so far this season. This will be an intriguing battle of two of Ligue 1’s under-rated tacticians in Will Still and Éric Roy. A tough game to call but I’d lean to a victory for the home side (10/11)
Marseille v Toulouse Prediction
Sun 17 Sep 16:05
Marseille have started okay under Marcelino but there has to be a worry that the 4pts dropped in really favourable situations will come back to bite at the end of the season. OM probably thought giving up a goal lead to 10 man Metz only to battle back for a draw couldn’t be ‘bettered’. They managed to do so at Nantes the last day. Les Olympiens were 1-0 up after 4 minutes and just 5 minutes later playing against 10 men. So that’s a total of 2 goals scored, 3 conceded and 2 points from 112 minutes (excluding added time) against sides with a man less.
Toulouse probably should be in the top 6 after giving up a 2 goal lead to relegation troubled Clermont. They shouldn’t dwell on it though as it’s been a good start from yet another Ligue 1 side dealing with the loss of a key player. Zakaria Aboukhlal has shown himself to be a leading Ligue 1 player with 3 goals so far this season. With regular goal contributions from elsewhere in the side, Les Violets could spring a few more surprises like thier Week 2 draw against PSG. Unfortunately I don’t see this game being one of them. The home side will likely make this difficult for themselves again but should have enough to win the game. Unfortunately, odds of 1/2 aren’t a working man’s price.
Lyon v Le Havre Prediction
Sun 17 Sep 19:45
Laurent Blanc finally got the boot from Lyon and it could have been argued that his contract should have been voided after his first team meeting. Whilst the board have a lot to answer for at OL, Blanc’s tactical deficiencies were there for all to see last season. Switching between all out attack to all to defence to something in between only works if you have a play style in the first place. Jean-François Vulliez takes over as caretaker for this game. After a decade as head coach of Lyon’s academy side and 4 games as assistant to Blanc it is a big step up to Ligue 1. One feels if he only knows how to write a team on paper it will be a better appointment than the rumoured signing of Gennaro Gattuso.
Bar PSG, Le Havre are possibly one of the worst sides Lyon could have faced. Le Club Doyen have been impossible to predict for opposing managers with only Brest having beaten them so far. Luka Eisner might not be at the Normandy side much longer if this form keeps up. Having gone from the best defence in Ligue 2 last season (19 goals conceded in 38 games) to attacking outfit to be feared, the Slovenian’s stock is rising. Only Monaco have scored more than Le Havre this season. It’s hard to predict whether Blanc’s absence will be a boost or not. I’d lean towards an away win or maybe Le Havre/Draw in the double chance (6/5) market. A lot of Lyon’s players are the same ones who toiled as badly for Peter Bosz as they did for Blanc. It’s hard to see from within the squad where some fresh impetus or desire comes from.
Smart Bets
Kylian Mbappé to score anytime @ 4/5
Rennes to win @ 11/10
Monaco to win & BTTS @ 12/5
Above in a treble (best priced): just under 12/1
Dermot publishes his Ligue 1 tips here every Thursday. Follow Dermot and TheACCAdemics to get all our weekly football betting tips first!
