Ligue 1 Tips: Marseille to make Messi miserable

Ligue 1 Tips: Marseille to make Messi miserable

Dermo has three Ligue 1 selections this weeks which when combined amount to an eye-watering 31/1 treble

Whilst there will be some interesting games like Monaco v Nice, there is only one game on everyone’s minds in terms of Ligue 1 this week as titans Marseille and PSG go head to head to finish game week 25. For a while Lens looked like the only challengers to the Paris outfit’s procession to another league title but a win for OM will leave them 2pts from the summit.

Lorient Vs Auxerre

Sun 26th 12:00 GMT

As mentioned last week, Bamba Dieng and Romain Faivre have adjusted to life in Lorient and both duly obliged with a goal each. Even though fans were dismayed by the sales of Dango Ouattara and Terem Moffi, their replacements are more than adequate. Les Merlus are still 7th in the table and are 7th best home team in Ligue 1.

On the flip side, Auxerre are the worst away side in Ligue 1. They have -18 goal difference and only 1 win after 12 attempts. Maybe the price on Lorient is due to the shock Auxerre over Lyon the last day, but OL are only good on paper these days. Add odds against, a home win is definitely the bet in this game.

Nantes Vs Rennes

Sun 26th 14:00 GMT

Both sides suffered exits from the Europa League on Thursday night. Nantes knew their fate early on after Angel di Maria’s quality goal was followed by the shambolic sending off of Nicolas Pallois. The resulting penalty essentially finished the tie after 20 minutes meaning Nantes should be relatively fresh after the game.

Rennes on the other hand had an absolutely gruelling match with Shakthar Donetsk. They forced extra time, took a lead, scored an own goal to put Shakthar back in the tie and then lost on sudden death penalties. The own goal was scored by 18-year-old sensation Jeanuel Belocian who has taken over as a starting centre back in recent weeks. Bruno Genesio now has the quandary of putting the youngster straight back into a big game or risking one of two centre backs who have been a liability all season in Artur Theate and Joe Rodon. I suspect he’ll be wrong with either choice which makes me think the 5/2 on a home win looks far too big. Also, Rennes have been terrible since the 2nd week of 2023 having lost 7 out of their last 10 games in all competitions.

Marseille Vs PSG

Sun 19th 19:45 GMT

Marseille will look to create a genuine title challenge with an almost full-strength side when PSG come to the Vélodrome on Sunday evening. After a horrible spell in October, Igor Tudor’s side have won 8 of their last 11 Ligue 1 matches. Whereas last season everything was over reliant on Dimitri Payet, this season has been a collective effort. This is none more highlighted by OM only having Jonathan Clauss inside the top 25 ranked players this season according to WhoScored.com. Alexis Sánchez has rolled back the years and is having his best spell since 2016/17 at Arsenal.

PSG went undefeated in Ligue 1 until New Year’s Day but since then there have been a lot of cracks that the front 3 have had to cover over. They have not kept a clean sheet in the league since playing Angers early in January. With both first choice fullbacks injured (and potentially Marquinhos for this game), the Parisians’ have looked porous at the back. Lille beat them on every metric last week except goals & shots on target witch will be very encouraging for the home side. Marseille also had Christophe Galtier’s sides number when beating them in Coupe de France two weeks ago, with PSG arguably fielding a stronger side that day.

From betting angle I fancy Marseille to repeat the performance from the Coupe and with a similar scoreline. The Vélodrome will be a deafening ’12th Man’ so even if the home side do go behind, they should provide the encouragement to keep the pressure on their vulnerable opponents. With 7/2 on offer for a home win and both teams to score, look to the side from the Riviera to make the title race come alive this weekend.

Smart Bets

Lorient to Win @ 21/20 (5pt win)

Nantes to Win @ 5/2 (2pt win)

Marseille Win & BTTS @ 7/2 (2pt win)

Above in treble (best priced): 31/1 (1pt win)

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French football connoisseur and Irish racing power house. He brings a certain je ne sais quoi to The Accademics with his flair for hidden gems in Ligue 1. When he’s not absorbed in all things France, Dermot is a Sunday warrior who splits his time between Irish horse racing and the NFL. Makes up one half of the unofficial SRD 49ers fan club.
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