This week Dermot will look to find more Ligue 1 football betting value as all eyes turn to The Groupama Stadium for the clash of Lyon and PSG.
Nantes v Marseille Prediction
Fri 01 Sep 20:00
Friday night games can be notorious for going against form. It’s hard to see that here after Nantes poor start. Les Canaries can’t rely on the luck they had last Friday all season. A win for Marseille looks like the most likely outcome.
Brest v Rennes Prediction
Sat 02 Sep 16:00
As derbies go, this one is very lopsided in favour of the away side. Brest last beat Rennes in Derby de la Bretagne 12 years ago. Including the cup, their record since then is W0-D5-L5 against their Brittany neighbours. Brest have made a great start to the season though. Wins over Lens and Le Havre see them 4th in the table with 6 points.
Les Rennais are just behind them in 6th on 5pts from 3 games. Bruno Genesio side will be looking to make amends after gifting Le Havre a point the last day. 2-0, then 2-1 up against a side with 10 men and only getting a point will hurt a little. This sort of erratic away form has been the reason why Rennes haven’t challenged at the very top of the Ligue 1 table.
Monaco v Lens Prediction
Sat 02 Sep 20:00
A massive season defining game usually doesn’t happen in week 4 but this one is certainly that. A home win will see the Principality as genuine Ligue 1 title contenders. A loss for the away side will all but end their own title aspirations this early on. Monaco signed Folarin Balogun on Wednesday to bolster an already formidable attack. Lens aren’t historically the strongest travelers. Given that the home side probably need some reinforcements in the centre of their defence too, this will be an open game.
Monaco to win & BTTS @ 11/4
Toulouse v Clermont Foot Prediction
Sun 03 Sep 12:00
Toulouse sit in 11th place. This is around about where they’ll likely finish the season. It looks like they will struggle against teams that put men behind the ball. Clermont won’t do that though. Zakaria Aboukhlal will relish hitting the away side on the break. Les Lanciers have had 10 counter attacks against them so far this season. That’s 5 more than any other Ligue 1 team. The eye test will show that number should probably be closer to 20.
Toulouse to win @ 19/20
Lille v Montpellier Prediction
Sun 03 Sep 14:00
Lille’s 5th placed finish last season was mostly attained from a great home record. The cracks in their defence were fully exposed in 4-1 loss at Lorient last week. The stats from the opening 2 games masked how shaky it is. They travel to Croatia tonight to play Rijeka. French sides had a very poor record when returning from European games the past 2 seasons. Montpellier at 7/2 seems a bit on the high side.
Le Havre v Lorient Prediction
Sun 03 Sep 14:00
Le Havre were an absolute defensive wall in Ligue 2 last season. It’s surprising that their opening 3 games In Ligue 1 have all been over 2.5 goals & BTTS affairs. This game seems to be following a similar trajectory after Lorient’s 4-1 the last day. The away side have developed a counter attacking system this season against stronger sides. This will be their first game in which they are slight favourites. The stats point to BTTS and over 2.5 but I’d lean an away win.
Metz v Reims Prediction
Sun 03 Sep 14:00
Metz got their first win of the season over a hapless Clermont last week. Like most teams that faced Les Lanciers in Ligue 1 this season, they made them pay on the break. A big change for this game though is the sale of talisman Georges Mikautadze. The Georgian has signed for Dutch giants Ajax. As astute as he is, it’s hard to see how Laszlo Boloni replaces his quality for this game.
Reims showed all the qualities that made them such an interesting story last season when beating Montpellier 3-1. A solid defence mixed with an efficient attack gives Les Rouges et Blancs a chance in every game. Teddy Teuma announced himself last week with a brace. The Maltese scored 10 in 36 for Union SG of Belgium last season. Given this is a game without a top quality number 9, Reims offer more goals from elsewhere on the pitch to win this game.
Reims to win @ evens
Nice v Strasbourg Prediction
Sun 03 Sep 16:05
Like someone going back to their ex, once again Nice let me down last week. Lyon sat back and basically told Francesco Farioli’s side they wouldn’t score. And they never really came close in their 24 attempts on goal. They have a great attacking unit on paper but it has absolutely no cohesion at present. This is the type of game that screams draw (Nice have started W0-D3-L0) but likely the home side win when I’m not backing them. An angle into the game is that Unibet are still offering almost 5/1 on Emanuel Emegha to score at anytime. He opened his account for Strasbourg last week and matches against Ligue 1’s oldest outfield player in Dante this week.
Lyon v PSG Prediction
Sun 03 Sep 19:45
Lyon put on their best defensive display in years against Nice. It’s a sign of how badly the Ligue 1 season has started for Laurent Blanc’s side. All out defence in a game they normally try to win shows limitations in the squad. Many players are high potential or highly regarded prospects but the chemistry and belief simply doesn’t add up. The managers continual bad press conference’s aren’t helping. A big home loss to the visitors will surely see OL looking for a 4th manager in as many years.
PSG finally got the goals to match their ball possession stats last week against Lens. That possession average is massive 75% after 3 games. Should the home side copy last weeks display, Luis Enrique’s side might well be pushing 80% by the end of play. Having Mbappé (7/2 for 2+ goals) back in the line up, the Parisians look more threatening in front of goal. With Lacazette still suspended for Lyon, a routine win for the away side looks the order of the day.
Smart Bets
Monaco to win & BTTS @ 11/4
Toulouse to win @ 19/20
Reims to win @ evens
Above in a treble (best priced): 13/1
Dermot publishes his Ligue 1 tips here every Thursday. Follow Dermot and TheACCAdemics to get all our weekly football betting tips first!
