Dermo has a 19/2 treble lined up for the Sunday slate of games in Ligue 1
As with a lot of leagues that run from August to May, we have entered the punting twilight zone for Ligue 1 too. Wins for Brest and Strasbourg have essentially guaranteed their top flight status for next season. Last week, AC Ajaccio and Troyes joined Angers in next season’s Ligue 2. This leaves around 11 teams with little or nothing to play for. The champions could be decided this weekend if PSG win at Auxerre. If Lens lose the game before them, a draw may be enough for the Parisians as Marseille have a tricky trip to Lille on Saturday evening.
AC Ajaccio Vs Rennes
Sun 21st 12:00
Ajaccio’s return to Ligue 2 was confirmed after a 5-0 defeat at PSG last weekend. The writing has been on the wall for some time though as they have only managed 2 wins and 2 draws from 19 matches since the turn of the year. The wins came against the now 20th and 18th placed sides whilst the 2 draws were against marginally better teams. The islanders haven’t managed a home goal in their past 5 games which doesn’t bode well for the visit of a Rennes side who seem to have found their mojo after a very mixed season.
Bruno Genesio’s side have scored 12 in their last 5 games. Their away form isn’t great (W4-D5-L8) but this is must win game if they want to keep the pressure on Lille who currently sit a point above them in the last European spot. If this game was back in February there is no chance I’d recommend a bet on Rennes in the handicaps but this looks like the ideal spot given how poor the home side is, coupled with what’s on offer for a win for the away side. Les Rouge et Noirs to win -1 after scoring early on to run out easy winners.
Brest Vs Clermont
Sun 21st 14:00
Clermont are currently on of top the Ligue 1 form table (form over last 6 games). They have been on a great run (given their squad size) over the past 7 games with 6 wins and a draw. So why do I think a home win is on the cards here? As mentioned in the opening paragraph, lots of teams have nothing to play for and Les Lanciers fit that bill. Even with 3 wins from their remaining games, snagging 5th place and a European spot is highly unlikely. The form of that great run isn’t amazing. Their league positions of those opponents: 18th, 19th, 20th, 10th, 11th, 16th, 7th.
Brest got the job done against Auxerre last week to give themselves breathing space. If Nantes pull off a win against Montpellier on Saturday afternoon this becomes a huge game. Auxerre may be closer in the table but their run-in is horrible. This is a situational play if ever there was one – it’s the home sides last realistic chance of points while the away side will be looking forward to their summer holidays. Even if Les Canaries lose the day before, the upside is a more relaxed Brest side who may try to put on a show for the home faithful.
Nice Vs Toulouse
Sun 21st 14:00
Toulouse’s great season appears to be unraveling at an astonishing rate. After winning the Coupe de France one would think everything is rosy at the Occitan club. Not so, 5 players refused to play at the weekend over wearing Pride armbands whilst it’s emerged that one of their players has been borrowing money from others to pay gambling debts/make more bets. The in-house disagreements have now got a public angle to them which is threatening to take the gloss off a brilliant season.
Nice’s inconsistencies have been well covered on this column but like the Brest game, this is another situational bet. With the away sides distractions (the home side have plenty themselves with their owner very public about trying to buy another club), this could be the ideal spot to back Les Aiglons. Bar the absence of Aaron Ramsey and Nicolas Pepe, Didier Digard has a full squad to choose from. Nice are a frustrating team to follow but a home win has a little bit of value here.
Brest To Win @ 11/10 (3pt win)
Nice to Win @ 5/6 (1pt win)
Rennes to Win -1 @ 6/4 (1pt win)
Above in treble (best priced): 19/2 (1pt win)