Premier League Tips: A 20/1 Trio Of EPL Shot Tips

Premier League Tips: A 20/1 Trio Of EPL Shot Tips

Last weekend was a mixed bag in terms of SOT betting. I nailed the Cole Palmer selection but got Pedro Neto completely wrong and ended up flat in terms of PnL. 

Arsenal v Brentford

Sat 09 Mar 17:30

The Gunners are the most in-form team in Europe and the bookies have taken note. They are priced at a measly 1/4 at home to Brentford, were 1/8 against Sheffield United on MNF, and 1/7 against Burnley the weekend before. That is three consecutive wins for a combined odds of just 3/5. Arsenal to win to nil is 11/10 which almost tempts but I will avoid it for two reasons. Firstly, if Arsenal continue to rack up 5+ goal leads it would be only human for some complacency to slip in. Secondly, Mikel Arteta cleared his bench early against the Blades on Monday and will likely do the same here should his team take an early lead. Arsenal have a significant list of injured players to rehabilitate and with rusty returners on the field, a late Brentford goal would not surprise me. However, I don’t want to back BTTS either as Arsenal have only conceded one goal in their last six hours of Premier League football.

So with that in mind, I will once again turn to the shots on target market. Arsenal have fired off a whopping 94 shots in their last five league games, with 40 of those being SOT. And where Arsenal’s form has been blistering, Brentford have struggled. They have allowed 89 shots over the same period and will most likely struggle to contain this free-flowing Arsenal. It can be hard to pick which Arsenal to back sometimes as they tend to rotate and swap almost continually. However, here I like the look of Leandro Trossard. The Belgian is not typically a guaranteed starter but with Gabriel Martinelli going off injured on Monday I will take a punt here. Trossard is 7/4 for 2+ SOT and that does not look to take account of a probable starting berth.

 

West Ham v Burnley

Sun 10 Mar 14:00

West Ham suffered a torrid start to 2024 (W0 D4 L4) but have since won back-to-back games against Brentford and Everton. They are odds on here at 8/13 and if it were not for a Thursday night trip to the German Alps I would be putting the rent money on a home win. Burnley are finished. They have lost their last three games by a combined score of 10-0. They have picked up 2 points in 2024 (W0 D2 L8) and their record since September is appalling.  As bad as they have been all season, their performances have somehow gotten worse lately. The players look dejected and I think the owners are sticking with Vincent Kompany with next season in mind.

On the off chance West Ham suffer any Europa League hangover, I will leave off this seemingly well-priced home win. Instead, I will dip into the SOT market again. Jarred Bowen endured a fallow winter that coincided with his side’s dip in form. However, he managed 4 SOT in his last three games and his output has ticked up alongside West Ham’s improved results. Bowen is 2/1 for 2+ SOT on Sunday which looks a great price, especially considering Burnley’s form.

 

Chelsea v Newcastle

Mon 11 Mar 20:00

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, as the old adage goes, and that is my logic here. Cole Palmer has been a rare bright spark for Pochettino’s “billion pound bottlers” and his SOT form, if such a thing exists, has been largely missed due to his low conversion rate. In Palmer’s defense, the inability to turn chances into goals seems to be impacting the whole club at the minute and I expect at some point the young Englishman will see his output increase. However, in the meantime, all we want is for the shots to continue. Excluding away games against Liverpool and Manchester City, which will skew anybody’s statistics, Palmer has managed 40 shots (20 SOT) in his last 11 starts. That is as good as almost any player in the league and it is surprising to see him priced at 6/4 for 2+ SOT on Monday.

Premier League Shots Betting

Arsenal v Brentford – Trossard 2+ SOT @ 7/4

West Ham v Burnley – Bowen 2+ SOT @ 2/1

Chelsea v Newcastle – Palmer 2+ SOT @ 6/4

 

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European Football Punter Extraordinaire. Although claiming to support Arsenal around The Accademics office, he is a football hipster at heart - just don’t tell him that! Happiest cheering on goals and upsets in the unloved Serie B and Belgian First Division A. Not to mention being a closeted college football fan. His biggest claim to fame is winning the New England College Rugby Champions at the lofty heights of varsity Division IV. The less vocal Grangee owner in the group. Loves to tip a midfielder for a shot on target.
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