The Premier League’s much-vaunted drama exploded into life last weekend after Liverpool scored two late goals to stun Eddie Howe and Newcastle. The entertainment is set to continue this week as six of the top pretenders face off and LB tries to find more Premier League betting value.
Luton Town v West Ham
Fri 01 Sep 20:00
Luton have looked woefully out of their depth so far but that is not likely to dampen the atmosphere for their first ever Premier League home game. I am very curious to see how West Ham approach this one. So far they have been more than happy to sit back, soak up pressure and punish teams when the opportunity arrives. Will they have the discipline to do that against a team deemed to be so much inferior?
If West Ham play the way they have so far then this should be a routine win. That being said, West Ham have always struggled against teams who sit back and defend, and it would not be too much of a shock to see the home side beat Moyes at his own game.
I can see plenty of ‘situational’ punters backing Luton at 15/4 but that is just a little tight for me. I do like Both Teams To Score though at 4/5. Both teams have conceded in every game so far and I expect that to continue. Luton created chances against Chelsea and managed to score against Brighton and confidence should be high after putting three past League Two side Gillingham midweek.
Sheffield Utd v Everton
Sat 02 Sep 12:30
Things were looking awfully bleak an hour into Everton’s EFL Cup game over Doncaster on Wednesday night. Sean Dyche’s side had played 350 minutes of football this season without scoring a single goal. Luckily for Toffees’ fans Beto and Danjuma found their shooting boots and a humiliating cup exit was avoided.
Sheffield United for their part did suffer a humbling cup exit to a lower league side after a goalless stalemate with Lincoln City. They dominated possession but could not find a way through and ultimately went out on penalties.
Will that comeback win fire Everton into life, or will Sheffield United bounce back? This really ought to be a no-bet game but I’m going to back Everton once again.
Chelsea v Nottingham Forest
Sat 02 Sep 15:00
Chelsea got their first league win under Poch last week and I was personally delighted with my game-time decision to back Raheem Sterling for shots on target. I have never been a massive fan of the Englishman but it is plain to see his has a newfound lease of life this season. He was Chelsea’s main threat against West Ham, scored a brace against Luton and was rested midweek for the EFL Cup. He looks a steal at 7/4 for 2+ SOT.
Manchester City v Fulham
Sat 02 Sep 15:00
There is no betting value for me in this game. If I had to make a pick it would be BTTS at 21/20 but it’s not an official bet.
Brentford v Bournemouth
Sat 02 Sep 15:00
Brentford have struggled so far and the visit of Bournemouth should offer them a good chance to pick up their first home win of the season. Conservative punters might be better off with a straight win at 8/11 but I’m going for Brentford To Win & over 1.5 goals at evens. I have an inkling that both teams will score here but I don’t want to take the risk. There are not many stats I can point out to back this one up. I just feel Brentford are better than their results so far.
Burnley v Tottenham
Sat 02 Sep 15:00
Tottenham’s start to the season has been better than most expected but the EFL Cup loss to Fulham has tainted things a bit. Spurs have limited trophy options this season and a cup run, even in the EFL Cup, would have gone a long way with fans. Ange Postecoglou rested many of his key players and paid the price. They are odds on away to a Burnley side that are yet to find their feet back in the top flight. Two losses either side of a cancelled game means Vincent Kompany’s side remain in the relegation zone, although a routine win midweek over Norwich will give them some confidence back. I actually expect an upset here. Burnley are 3/1 to pick up their first win back in the Premier League and that’s the pick. Spurs have not played poorly by any measure but I think the schedule has been kind. Their three league games so far have come against teams with underwhelming summers and a trip to Turf Moor will be Postecoglou’s first taste of the Premier League’s competitiveness.
Brighton v Newcastle
Sat 02 Sep 17:30
Brighton host Newcastle in the Saturday late kick-off and it is a game I cannot wait to watch. Both teams will be licking their wounds after galling, but not unsurprising, losses last weekend. I tipped up a West Ham win over The Seaguls and it landed in perfect David Moyes style. Despite some early wins Brighton do not look to have found their groove yet and The Hammers made them pay. Newcastle put in a fine performance against Liverpool and were cruising until two late goals saw them throw it all away. BTTS is about the only thing I would be interested in betting here but at 4/9 I’ll pass.
Liverpool v Aston Villa
Sun 03 Sep 14:00
I lean a tight Villa win in this game but not enough to bet it. Liverpool will be feeling mighty good about themselves after their smash-and-grab win but Unai Emery is the master of ruining parties. Under 2.5 goals looks overpriced at 7/4 though and that is my pick.
Crystal Palace v Wolves
Sun 03 Sep 14:00
Fair play to anyone who is betting on this game. I have no idea what to make of either of these teams so far so will not be betting on it. My gut says Wolves are over priced at 10/3 but with so much value elsewhere I’m happy to pass.
Arsenal v Manchester United
Sun 03 Sep 16:30
The headline game on Super Sunday sees a wobbling Arsenal pitted against an undercooked United. Both of these sides expected to be in a title race this season, although I personally never saw Man United as being serious contenders. Their woeful performances so far back that up and unless there is a significant change of tactics or personnel, particularly beefing up of the midfield, I cannot see them getting much success this year. Arsenal enjoyed their best summer transfer window in memory but injuries to key players and the inexplicable exclusion of Gabriel has seen them start the season in an underwhelming fashion. Things came to a boiling point last weekend with a draw at home to Fulham and Arteta is facing some selection dilemmas.
On paper Arsenal should win this one handily. Despite long periods of dominance over their London rivals at the tail end of Arsene Wenger’s reign, United have been quite poor against Arsenal of late. Their league form in The Emirates Stadium (W1 D1 L6) is uninspiring and United’s Old Trafford victory last season was quite fortunate.
I will probably back Arsenal come Sunday evening but there will be no official pick for me. United have looked well off it so far but Arsenal seem a bit unsettled. I suspect Arteta will bring Jesus and Gabriel back into the starting lineup but with so many unknowns I will skip this one. That being said, when the teams are announced I will back whichever of Nketiah, Trossard or Jesus starts upfront for Arsenal for shots on target.
Premier League Betting Tips
Luton Town v West Ham – BTTS @ 4/5
Chelsea v Nottingham Forest – Sterling 2+ SOT @ 7/4
Brentford v Bournemouth – Brentford To Win & O1.5 Goals @ Evens
The above in a Treble at odds of 9/1 with Bet365.
Sheffield Utd v Everton – Everton To Win @ 6/4
Burnley v Tottenham – Burnely To Win @ 17/4
Liverpool v Aston Villa – Under 2.5 Goals @ 7/4