LB shares his best Shots On Target tips for this weekend’s Premier League fixtures that combine for a 35/1 treble.
Last weekend was another tough one for readers of the column. Everything started well and the first two legs of the Over 2.5 Goals treble landed with ease, before Arsenal ground out a hard-fought one nil win over Brentford. Hindsight is 20/20 as the saying goes, but looking back that third leg was a mistake. The Gunners keep a surprising amount of clean sheets and Brentford are always a tough nut to crack at home. This weekend the fixtures are particularly tough from a betting perspective so I am changing things up a bit. There are three players who look overpriced for shots on target so I will focus on that market.
Arsenal v Wolves
Sat 02 Dec 15:00
Arsenal can be a tough team to bet on. Their sturdy performance at Brentford saw them grind out a decent one-nil win, and that was followed up with a six-nil shellacking of Lens. The Arsenal performances in those two games were not all that different, as strange as that sounds. With that in mind, the home side offer little appeal here at 2/7. I have also had some bad luck backing Wolves lately and am reluctant to bet against Gary O’Neil’s side.
However, one market that stands out in this game is Gabriel Martinelli to have shots on target. The Brazilian winger is looking back to his best after a quiet start to the season and he was electric against Lens. He is somewhat mercurial and tends to have runs of games where his contributions dry up. That being said, he has had almost as many shots on target in November (7) compared to August, September and October combined (8). Wolves are not much of a defensive unit and have not kept a clean sheet since August. They have allowed a staggering eighty shots over the last six games alone and Arsenal could have a field day. Martinelli to have 2+ SOT looks a great bet at 7/4 and is my first bet of the weekend.
Newcastle v Manchester United
Sat 02 Dec 20:00
The Premier League 8PM games are generally belters and this should be no different. Both of these sides fancied themselves to be in the title race this season but at this early stage the the race for Top 4 looks to be their ceiling. Newcastle are struggling with injuries and the suspension of Tonali and it will be fascinating to see how they react to the late VAR-caused sucker punch against PSG. United were scintillating in Turkey midweek before another away implosion left them clinging on in Group A.
That game highlighted everything good and bad about United under Ten Haag and it is hard to know what to make of the result. Andre Onana singlehandedly cost United the points but that does not take away from an impressive performance going forward. Alejandro Garnacho was central to United’s attacking threat. The young Argentinian has had a shot on target in four of his last five outings and should get at least one more at St. James Park.
Newcastle have a well-established tendency to sit deep and that should see United fire off an above average number of shots. Even if the game pans out differently, and United play a more counter-attacking style as Ten Haag often reverts to, Garnacho will likely be the primary output again. Alejandro Garnacho to have 2+ SOT at 10/3 looks like great value and is my pick for the late kickoff.
Liverpool v Fulham
Sun 03 Dec 14:00
My thinking for this game is similar to that for the Arsenal one above. Liverpool are rightly big favorites but I am not interested in a bet at 1/4. Klopp’s side cruised into the Europa League knockout stage as winners of Group E after sweeping LASK aside with ease.
Just like with Martinelli, Luis Diaz tends to blow hot and cold. And just like with the Brazilian, Diaz has been far more productive lately than during the earlier part of the season. His eight shots on target in November outstrips his total for August, September and October combined (7).
Liverpool are likely to dominate this game and the Colombian is central to their attack of late. Luis Diaz is 2/1 for 2+ SOT and that rounds out my Premier League bets this weekend.
Premier League Shots On Target Tips
Arsenal v Wolves: Martinelli 2+ SOT @ 7/4
Newcastle v Manchester United: Alejandro Garnacho 2+ SOT @ 10/3
Liverpool v Fulham: Luis Diaz 2+ SOT @ 2/1
The above in a treble @ 35/1