Premier League Tips: Best Bets For Matchday Five As City Take On West Ham

Premier League Tips: Best Bets For Matchday Five As City Take On West Ham

There is a clash of European Champions in the Premier League this weekend as Pep’s Manchester City travel to London Stadium to take on high-flying West Ham. The Irons have surprised most people with their electric start to the season, myself included, and their mettle will be well and truly tested on Saturday. Elsewhere, Arsenal travel to Goodison to take on a winless Everton, and Sean Dyche will be hoping for a repeat of his side’s 1-0 win in the same fixture last season. LB runs down the biggest Premier League fixtures this weekend and shares his best bets.

Wolves v Liverpool Prediction

Sat 16 Sep 12:30

Premier League football returns with something of a banana skin for Liverpool. Wolves have started the season dismally and are now among the favourites to go down. Liverpool are unbeaten (P4 W3 D1 L0) and their forward line looks revitalized with nine goals in four games. There are still plenty of questions, the lack of defensive depth and midfield steel in particular, and I’m not sure The Reds offer much value at 2/5.

I tend not to bet these early Saturday kick-offs but Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS at 10/11 looks more than fair. Both sides will be going all out, albeit for different reasons, and neither has much of a defence to talk about. I think Wolves double-chance at 7/4 offers great value but I’ll play it safe with goals to get things started.

West Ham v Manchester City Prediction

Sat 16 Sep 15:00

West Ham host Man City in a game I am quite surprised is not being televised. The clash of styles here is intriguing. City will need to be at their best to justify their 9/20 odds. I have tipped or talked up West Ham in their last three games and I am tempted to do the same here.

The Hammers should be more than comfortable soaking up whatever pressure City can muster, and their midfield trio of Lucas Paqueta, James Ward-Prowse and Jarrod Bowen will be ready to pounce as soon as Pep’s side make a mistake. City dropped points ten times last season, and eight of those were away from home. The 6/1 for a home win is very attractive but I will play it safe with West Ham double chance at 13/8.

Aston Villa v Crystal Palace Prediction

Sat 16 Sep 15:00

A summer of optimism quickly turned to worry for The Villians when they were spanked by Newcastle on the opening day. Two high-scoring wins looked to steady the ship before another tough away day saw them head into the international break way down in 10th place. Although there is no shame in losing at Anfield or St James Park, Emery will be concerned by the amount of goals conceded in those losses (8).

Palace are not exactly a goal-scoring machine, but they have managed five goals in four games and I think goals in general here look overpriced. Over 2.5 Goals is 4/5 and that is a solid bet for any accas or conservative bettors. My pick, however, is for Aston Villa to win and Over 2.5 goals at 15/8. All of Villa’s games have seen at least 3 goals and their two wins both comfortably passed the Over 2.5 mark. Palace will make them work but at home Villa will have too much.

Manchester Utd v Brighton Prediction

Sat 16 Sep 15:00

Man United were millimeters away from a snatch-and-grab win over Arsenal in the final game before the international break and the 3-1 scoreline left Erik ten Hag reeling. The Dutchman took the loss quite ungraciously and for the first time, the Untied faithful are beginning to grumble.

United’s record away is simply shocking. They have been on the wrong end of countless high-score losses and there are serious questions about the quality and mentality of the squad. Can they answer some of those at home to Brighton? Personally, I see no value in United at 23/20, especially considering Brighton have beaten them three times in a row in the league.

I would expect goals but with Over 2.5 priced at 4/9 and BTTS priced at 2/5 I think I’ll sit this one out.

Newcastle Utd v Brentford Prediction

Sat 16 Sep 17:30

I predicted some teething issues for Newcastle in my season preview but even I was surprised by how poorly they started. Losses to Liverpool, Brighton and Manchester City do not look too bad on paper, but the implosive nature of these results was surprising. They are heavily odds-on here and I’m not too interested in it. I do expect Eddie Howe’s side to win the game, but 11/20 is far too narrow for my liking. Sandro Tonali is rumored to have picked up a fatigue-related injury while playing for Italy and may not start. Even if he is half-fit, Howe may opt to play it safe with a Champions League tie looming.

Both Teams To Score at 3/4 is a safe pick, especially if the home favorites are missing their midfield linchpin. Brentford have scored in all four games and conceded in three; Newcastle have scored in three of their games and conceded in all four. It is hard to imagine either team battening down the hatches and BTTS is the official pick.

For the more degenerate punters among us, one more bet stands out as value too. Newcastle have picked up fourteen bookings through four games and have committed more fouls than any other team. Over 2.5 Yellow Cards for Newcastle is 5/6 and that looks a great option for any bet builders.

Everton v Arsenal Prediction

Sun 17 Sep 16:30

Everton are winless so far and Sean Dyche is now the favorite in the ignominious “next to be sacked” market. Nothing would please him more than a street-smart win over Arsenal to get his season up and running and 5/1 for an Everton win is tempting. However, Everton do not play a style of football that is likely to trouble The Gunners. In fact, it is debatable if Everton play a style of football full stop.

That being said, their main threat, if you could describe two goals in four games as a threat, is from set pieces. This is an area where Arsenal are surprisingly competent. My pick for this game was going to be Martin Odegard to score anytime but at 2/1 I’ll pass. Everton have looked especially vulnerable to midfield runs into the box and I can see Odegard scoring a similar goal to the one Cameron Archer got a couple of weeks ago.

There is no official pick from me here but if Arteta reverts back to his early season tinkering then a small bet on Everton or double-chance (at 11/8) might not be a bad shout. If Arsenal start four recognized defenders then I’d sit this one out.

Nottingham Forest v Burnley Prediction

Mon 18 Sep 19:45

My instinct says an entertaining Burnley win here for MNF. Vincent Kompany’s side are bottom of the table (having only played three games) but three points would lift them out of the relegation zone. In truth, they have shown nothing so far that would suggest they are capable of getting the win but I would like to believe that’s because they have been unlucky with the scheduling. The losses have come at the hands of City, Spurs and Villa, and most newcomers to the Premier League would struggle in those fixtures. Their fixture away to relegation-favourites Luton was postponed. Burnley to Win and BTTS is 11/2 and that is my final pick of the week.

Premier League Best Bets

Wolves v Liverpool – Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS @ 10/11

West Ham v Manchester City – West Ham Double Chance (Win Or Draw) @ 13/8

Aston Villa v Crystal Palace – Villa To Win & O2.5 Goals @ 15/8

Newcastle Utd v Brentford – BTTS @ 3/4

Nottingham Forest v Burnley – Burnley To Win & BTTS @ 11/2


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European Football Punter Extraordinaire. Although claiming to support Arsenal around The Accademics office, he is a football hipster at heart - just don’t tell him that! Happiest cheering on goals and upsets in the unloved Serie B and Belgian First Division A. Not to mention being a closeted college football fan. His biggest claim to fame is winning the New England College Rugby Champions at the lofty heights of varsity Division IV. The less vocal Grangee owner in the group. Loves to tip a midfielder for a shot on target.
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