After some close calls and near misses, LB is looking to get back to winning ways with his Premier League betting tips.
It’s been a brutal run for the column lately and I’m drifting into sour grapes territory. I feel like I’ve made plenty of good calls but I am managing to pick a lot of losing bets and am starting to feel the heat. My instinct, once again, is for a number of the underdogs, but I will take a less-is-more approach this week.
Luton Town v Tottenham Prediction
Sat 07 Oct 12:30
Luton looked like a team on the up for about 60 seconds during the week. The Hatters beat Everton last week, which unfortunately for all involved tells us a lot more about Everton than it does Luton. Then, having gone a goal behind at home to Burnley, Luton managed a late equalizer and for a fleeting moment, it looked like they could even go on to grab a late winner. That lasted all of one minute before Burnley regained their lead and Luton went on to lose another game at home.
Tottenham are thriving under Big Ange, on paper at least, and they have been reveling in their hugely controversial, VAR-assisted win over Liverpool last weekend. I am beginning to think Spurs are flattering to deceive. All credit to them, they are picking up the points and that’s a big step forward for the club. However, they have benefited from some huge brushes of luck and there are significant footnotes beneath their three good results so far.
I am very close to start betting against Spurs, but I’m just not sure Luton have enough to do it this week. Had they held on for even a point midweek I would have been tempted, but it is just too hard to justify it, even at 6/1.
Everton v Bournemouth Prediction
Sat 07 Oct 15:00
It’s hard to explain what is going wrong at Everton other than to say everything is going wrong. They played well enough in their opening couple of games, despite not winning any, but now they are playing even worse than their results suggest. A return of four points from seven games is desperate and I cannot understand why they are odds-on here.
Bournemouth, for their part, have been terrible so far too. However, their only losses have come against Arsenal, Tottenham, Liverpool and Brighton. Everton have contrived to lose to Wolves, Fulham and Luton amongst others.
This bet is not based on any statistics, but the odds look a little off. Everton should not be odds-on here and so I’m plumping for the draw at 3/1.
Manchester Utd v Brentford Prediction
Sat 07 Oct 15:00
I said a few weeks ago I am beginning to think Erik ten Hag won’t last the season and after two losses on the bounce in games when United were odds-on, that feels even more likely. It is probably worth stating once again that not all of United’s problems are Ten Hag’s fault, but he truly looks out of his depth. He has reverted to a counterattacking style like a number of his predecessors did when results went awry and that is undermining his self-proclaimed “process”.
Manchester United’s form in all competitions reads: WLWLLLWWLL. Those four wins came against Wolves, Nottingham Forest, Burnley and Crystal Palace.
Unfortunately for anyone who fancies laying Manchester United this weekend, Brentford have regressed considerably this season. I think that has been caused in part by teams taking them more seriously. Their first couple of seasons in the league were a lot of fun, but now that the West Londoners are an established topflight side they are being treated as such.
An away win is very tempting at 15/4 but I will play it safe with BTTS. Despite playing terribly, United have a far better squad than Brentford, and if they click at all they will comfortably win. However, they have managed just one clean sheet in their last five home games, and with so many key defensive players out injured or out of form, both teams to score looks a solid call.
Burnley v Chelsea Prediction
Sat 07 Oct 15:00
I was quite confident about Burnley this season and so far that has not gone to plan. I was cold on Chelsea and that has been on the money. Pochettino is struggling to get much out of this expensive, hodge-podge squad and the Blues are already ten points behind City. A win over Fulham on MNF does not change a whole lot, and their only other league win came against Luton. For the statisticians out there, Chelsea’s 2-0 win over Fulham might have looked comfortable, but they managed only one shot more than The Cottagers and xG was 1.2 to 1.7.
Burnley started the season with three consecutive losses but they have since found some decent form (W2 D1 L2). Can they pick up their first home win of the season? I cannot say for sure, but 4/1 is a huge price for any team at home to Chelsea. I was originally tempted by the double chance market here, but at 23/20 it offers too little value compared to the straight win.
Brighton v Liverpool Prediction
Sun 08 Oct 14:00
This game will be a huge test for Klopp’s side after the club’s reaction to the VAR incident last weekend. Liverpool fans will be hoping the players adopt a siege mentality rather than become distracted by all the attention before a tricky trip to Brighton.
The Seagulls have lost their way a little bit this season but one thing has looked consistent: goals. Both teams to score and Over 3.5 goals has landed in all seven of Brighton’s league games so far, with 33 goals being scored in total. It might not look like a lot of value at evens but it is easy to see this one turning into another high-scoring affair.
Premier League Tips
Everton v Bournemouth – Draw @ 3/1
Manchester Utd v Brentford – BTTS @ 7/10
Burnley v Chelsea – Burnley To Win @ 4/1
Brighton v Liverpool – BTTS & Over 3.5 Goals @ 1/1