Premier League Tips: Can Luton Capitalise On Everton Success

Premier League Tips: Can Luton Capitalise On Everton Success

With The Premier League entering the home straight LB shares some betting angles in crucial EPL games.

Luton v Everton

Fri 03 May 20:00

Despite the best efforts of the organising body, Everton secured safety last week with a Sean Dyche special – a one-nil win over Brentford. That was The Toffee’s third straight win and third straight clean sheet. So it might seem strange to bet against Everton here but that’s exactly what I’m doing.

Luton have shown surprising fight this season and have a decent record against fellow strugglers. In fact, twenty of their 25 points have come against bottom-half teams. Everton, despite their stellar run, have not won an away game since mid-December (W0 D4 L6).

Arsenal v Bournemouth

Sat 04 May 12:30

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a game priced up like this one. Arsenal are massive favourites (1/5), and over 2.5 goals is heavily odds-on (1/3). For games like this, it is normal to see multiple, if not most, players of the favoured team odds-on for 2+ SOT. Not a single Arsenal player is inside evens to hit the target twice, and it is strange to see Nketiah and Smith Rowe among those with the lowest odds. Regular shooters for Arsenal are all available at big odds and with just three games left I do not expect Arteta to rotate.

Kai Havertz (9/4), Saka (12/5) and Trossard (12/5) all tempt but I will plump for the captain, Martin Odegard. The Norwegian is in the form of his life and at 10/3 looks too good to pass on. Bournemouth keep very few clean sheets on the road and their record is somewhat inflated recently by a very obliging schedule. I expect another comfortable Gunners win with Odegard at the centre of it all.

Brighton v Aston Villa

Sun 05 May 14:00

I backed Aston Villa to win the Premier League handicap betting and have no reason to cheer against them, but I suspect they will struggle here. Villa went two nil down at home to Olympiacos mid-week before fighting back to 2-2 early in the second half. Shockingly, Emery’s side went on to lose 2-4 at home to the Greek stalwarts and have a monster challenge waiting for them in Piraeus on Thursday.

Unai Emery has long prioritized European cup football over the domestic pecking order and I suspect his players will be focused on the Europa Conference League semifinal. Brighton’s form is admittedly poor, but this is a great chance for them to take a scalp off one of the top sides.

Man City v Wolves

Sat 04 May 17:30

I initially had no bet here but Wolves are just too overpriced to ignore. At time of writing most bookies have Gary O’Neil’s side available at 20/1 or better and they are currently available on The Betfair Exchange at almost 30/1. This same Wolves team beat Man City already this season, have taken points off Liverpool and Villa and did the league double over both Spurs and Chelsea. They were very unlucky not to beat United at Old Trafford and nearly caught Arsenal off guard at The Emirates in December.

Yes, Manchester City are the best team in England. And yes, almost everything that could go wrong has gone wrong for Wolves this season. But a City misstep here would not be the biggest upset of the weekend in my opinion and the prices seem far too generous.

Premier League Smart Betting

Luton v Everton – Luton To Win @ 9/5

Arsenal v Bournemouth – Odegard 2+ SOT @ 10/3

Brighton v Aston Villa – Brighton To Win @ 17/10

Man City v Wolves – Wolves Double Chance (Win Or Draw) @ 25/3

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European Football Punter Extraordinaire. Although claiming to support Arsenal around The Accademics office, he is a football hipster at heart - just don’t tell him that! Happiest cheering on goals and upsets in the unloved Serie B and Belgian First Division A. Not to mention being a closeted college football fan. His biggest claim to fame is winning the New England College Rugby Champions at the lofty heights of varsity Division IV. The less vocal Grangee owner in the group. Loves to tip a midfielder for a shot on target.
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