LB is having to roll with the punches lately and his tips are having a kiss-of-death effect on the teams involved. Arsenal succumbed to a controversial VAR-influenced loss in St James Park, Everton let in a late equaliser and Aston Villa delivered their worst performance of the season. Manchester City regained top spot after the rest of the top five teams failed to win. Ange Postecoglou’s honeymoon in North London finally ended when aggressive tactics and even more aggressive tackling saw 9-man Spurs lose 1-4 to Pochettino’s Chelsea.
Wolves v Tottenham Prediction
Sat 11 Nov 12:30
The wheels came off Tottenham’s unbeaten start to the season in spectacular fashion on Monday night. The game itself, despite being of a dismally low quality, was jam-packed with action. Five goals, five more ‘goals’ ruled out, two red cards, a penalty and eight yellows. I said last week that I wanted to lay Spurs and to expect a feisty encounter, so I’m a little frustrated not to have made any money from the game.
I am very curious how Tottenham react to that loss. “Big Ange” got plenty of pats on the back after the game. First, he refused to blame the refs in a thinly veiled dig at his Arsenal counterpart. Then, he went on to insist his side would always “have a go” even if they were reduced to just five players. The first of those seems a bit performative as Postecoglu was booked on the day for remonstrating with the referee and has a history of moaning about decisions. The second may turn out to be true, but Tottenham fans will surely hope it is not. Spurs were comically open throughout the game, and if Chelsea had any sort of reliable striker the scoreline could have been far worse.
That might not matter much on Saturday, however. Wolves looked to be turning the corner last month and were very unlucky not to beat Newcastle, convincingly, at Mollineaux. Unfortunately, Pedro Neto went off injured that day and their progress was checked. Then, Wolves lost to bottom-placed Sheffield United last weekend. The Blades form is simply horrendous and before beating Wolves they had managed just one point from the first 30 available (W0 D1 L9).
I suspect Wolves might have too much for Postecoglu’s side on Saturday for no reason other than Spurs’s backline will be seriously depleted. Romero and Udogie are both suspended and Micky van de Ven looks to have pulled his hamstring. Not to mention the injury concerns around James Maddison. This would be my strongest bet of the weekend if Neto wasn’t injured, but as the Portuguese will be absent I won’t go overboard.
Arsenal v Burnley Prediction
Sat 11 Nov 15:00
Arsenal are 1/5 at home to Burnley which offers zero appeal. Their visitors are 16/1 which is about as big a price as you’ll see in the league. Unfortunately, that doesn’t tempt much either. Where Arsenal do sometimes struggle against “street smart” defensively-minded teams, they will likely have a field day against a team as naive as Burnley. I had high hopes for Vincent Kompany’s side but they just seem entirely unwilling to adapt to the league. Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS score at 6/4 is interesting, but we will need to see if Arteta does any more backline tinkering before pulling the trigger.
Manchester Utd v Luton Town Prediction
Sat 11 Nov 15:00
I said last week that United look to be going nowhere fast and that Ten Haag could be in trouble soon. I also said that they still tend to find a way to sneak past the league’s worst teams. That is what happened last weekend and I think it will be same on Saturday. Luton came oh so close to catching Liverpool out last weekend but I don’t think they will have much luck at Old Trafford. United will look to bounce back after their topsy-turvy loss in Copenhagen but at 1/3 I’m not interested.
Crystal Palace v Everton Prediction
Sat 11 Nov 15:00
This is the sort of game that gets shown last on the Match Of The Day, garnering less talk than the day’s inevitable VAR controversies. I’m not sure why but I am expecting an exciting game at Selhurst Park on Saturday. Both of these teams will expect to win, and both have put in some decent performances this season. However, both have a tendency to make mistakes at the most inopportune moments so there is no bet for me.
Bournemouth v Newcastle Utd Prediction
Sat 11 Nov 17:30
Bournemouth are a whopping 15/4 here and I like the look of that price. Newcastle were very fortunate to beat Wolves and Arsenal in their last two league games and lost away to Dortmund during the week. For various reasons, The Magpies will be without Sandro Tonali, Jacob Murphy, Dan Burn, Harvey Barnes, Sven Botman, Bruno Guimaraes, Alexander Isak and potentially Callum Wilson. That is close to their entire first-choice outfield. It is a credit to Edie Howe and the club that they are coping so well, but it is surely only a matter of time before the schedule catches up with them.
Although Bournemouth’s form is objectively terrible (W1 D4 L7) they have played their fair share of the top teams. With so many players out for Newcastle, this is a perfect opportunity for Andoni Iraola to haul his side out of the drop zone. It might be a smarter play to lay Newcastle and back Bournemouth double chance. However, I have an inkling Newcastle are about to hit a bit of a blip and I’m backing the home win.
West Ham v Nottingham Forest Prediction
Sun 12 Nov 14:00
West Ham have quietly gone about imploding in the league. The Hammers have one win in six games, and that came against the Arsenal B team in The League Cup (W1 D1 L4). In the league, their form is even worse. They have two wins since August, against Luton Town and Sheffield United, two of the worst Premier League teams in recent memory. The fact there are two near certainties to go down might save West Ham, but the East Londoners look to be in for another long season once again. Nottingham Forest are 16/5 here and I don’t quite understand it. They have four losses this season – away to each of Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool and United. Outside of that, they have four wins and three draws.
Aston Villa v Fulham Prediction
Sun 12 Nov 14:00
An out-of-sorts Brighton against a Championship-bound Sheffield United offers no value. If I had to bet this one I would take Under 2.5 goals at 15/8 for no reason other than the price.
Liverpool v Brentford Prediction
Sun 12 Nov 14:00
Liverpool will be looking to bounce back after a lackluster performance against Luton. Again there is no real value in the win market and betting against goals seems like the smart play.
Brighton v Sheffield United Prediction
Sun 12 Nov 14:00
Bright are 1/4 here in a game that will likely be forgotten shortly after the weekend. Sheffield United have a goal difference of -21 after eleven games and are just not at the level of this league. Brighton have scored just one goal in four of their last five league games, though, and are winless domestically since September. Brave punters might again opt for the high priced under here.
Chelsea v Manchester City Prediction
Sun 12 Nov 16:30
Fresh from a helter-skelter win over Tottenham Chelsea return to The Bridge to take on City. The Blues have lost six in a row against Pep’s side so it is no surprise to see the champions odds-on here. I was tempted to back Man City and BTTS at 13/5 but I ultimately decided against it. Although I do not expect Chelsea to win, they play with a recklessness that makes backing City a bit risky, especially at such odds.
Premier League Best Bets
Wolves v Tottenham – Wolves To Win & BTTS @ 9/2 (0.5U)
Bournemouth v Newcastle – Bournemouth To Win @ 15/4
West Ham v Nottingham Forest – Forest To Win @ 16/5
The above in a treble at 108/1 (0.5U)
