LB shares his best bets from the Premier League including Man City, Everton, and plenty of goals.
The Premier League was really hitting its stride before another untimely International Break interrupted us again. Even I was beginning to find some form and managed to pick up a few wins. For a fleeting moment on Sunday afternoon, I came within minutes of landing a monster 115/1 treble. This weekend will be a little more reserved, but there is still plenty of betting value to be found. There has been an avalanche of off-field drama for the Premier League lately, with even more VAR controversies, FFP breaches, point deductions and misconduct charges.
Manchester City v Liverpool Prediction
Sat 25 Nov 12:30
The Premier League is back with a bang as Liverpool make the short trip to The Etihad to take on a resurgent Man City in the early kick-off. Klopp is not happy about the scheduling and it feels like a case of getting your excuses in early. The Champions had a little wobble in September, while Rodri was suspended, and lost three out of four games. Amazingly, that was their worst spell since Guardiola took over. After that, however, City won five in a row before playing out a wild 4-4 draw with Chelsea at the Bridge. I suggested staying away from that one and I’m glad it was a no-bet game for me.
Despite some away day blues, City’s home form is staggering. Over the last couple of seasons, they have lost just once at home (W34 D1 L1) and are currently on a 27-game winning streak. Although Liverpool are sitting just a point behind City their away form is mediocre at best. They have one win in their last five games away from Anfield, and that came against Bournemouth in the League Cup.
A home win and BTTS looks like decent value and is my first bet of the weekend. I was tempted to go for Over 2.5 goals instead of BTTS but the odds are significantly worse. Despite not picking up many away wins, Liverpool have scored in every away game this season. In fact, they have scored in all 18 games so far. With their goal-scoring threat and City’s home record it seems a likely outcome. City to win and BTTS at 2/1 is the bet.
Burnley v West Ham Prediction
Sat 25 Nov 15:00
I backed against West Ham last time out and for a brief moment, it looked like I was on to a winner. Forest took the lead midway through the second half and would have landed me 60 units if they held on. Unfortunately, they conceded 90 seconds later and West Ham went on to win the game. Winning ugly is generally something to be applauded and The Hammers have developed a mettle this year that makes them a far tougher team to write off. However, their away form is still miserable. West Ham only managed to beat one bottom-half team away from home all of last season and come into this game on the back of three away defeats in a row. I was tempted by Burnley to win and BTTS at 11/2 but I’ll play it safe with a straight win at 3/1.
Another angle is this match is for goals. Over 2.5 goals and BTTS at evens seems great value for any acca and I have to back it. Seven away games in a row, excluding a win to nil over League One Lincoln City, have gone over this mark for Moyes’s side and it has also landed in nine of eleven league games so far. Burnley play an open, attack-oriented game and this should explode into life early.
Newcastle United v Chelsea Prediction
Sat 25 Nov 15:00
Bruno Guimarães will be back for Newcastle, but the rest of their extensive injury list remains. That should be enough to put anyone off backing the home side here. Although Chelsea are coming into something resembling form, there are enough questions about the team to warrant backing either, especially at 13/8. One bet that does stand out is over 2.5 goals at even money. Both of these teams look shaky at the back, Chelsea seemingly cannot defend, and Newcastle have so few fit defenders. Anyone looking for some juice should consider Chelsea to Win and BTTS at 4/1.
Brentford v Arsenal Prediction
Sat 25 Nov 17:30
This has the potential to be an interesting game and an ugly one-nil feels about as likely as a five-goal thriller. Had this game come hot on the heels of Arsenal’s win over Burnley I would have happily backed The Gunners at 4/6. However, with the international break cooling down any sense of momentum I’m not so sure about it. Arsenal’s title tilt last season fell apart when their road form went south and since April they have a fairly middling away record (W11 D6 L4).
Brentford for their part are hard to get a read on. Their form through September was awful but they have three wins in their last four and might be getting back to their old selves. Either way, goals seem to be well-priced here. Over 2.5 goals is a generous 9/10 and has to be backed. Arsenal are full of attacking threats but still have a tendency to shoot themselves in the foot.
Tottenham v Aston Villa Prediction
Sun 26 Nov 14:00
This should be a cracker and a great game for any neutral. I called a Spurs loss right before the break and landed a 4/1 winner in the process. In one sense, Wolves were a touch fortunate to win that game, as both of their goals came during second-half injury time. That being said, Wolves had more shots, shots on target and produced a higher xG than Tottenham so it’s hard to say Spurs were unlucky.
There are plenty of subplots here but one that stands out most for me is the clash of managerial styles. Unai Emery, who I am a long-term fan of, is very pragmatic and is known to adjust his style game to game. Big Ange, although not quite as naive as he likes to portray himself, does tend to stick to his guns and a high-tempo style.
There has been an almost universal joy at how quickly Postecoglu steadied the ship at Spurs and this weekend will be a massive test of the Australian’s credentials. Tottenham have not been much of a defensive unit recently, and have only two clean sheets in their last ten games. Even more worryingly, they conceded six goals in their last two outings. Postecoglu’s high-line, gung-ho, all-out approach worked initially and it is very entertaining to watch. However, it seems that the rest of the league have copped it and are now exploiting it.
Will Spurs "have a go" like this against Wolves on Saturday or will Big Ange make a tweak?
— LB (@BetWithLB) November 8, 2023
Tottenham fans will surely hope to see some more pragmatism from their side on Sunday, and if they get it they could very easily win this here. However, I’m inclined to take Postecogleu at face value and reckon he will be outsmarted by the more experienced Emery. The last time I backed Villa they turned in a stinker of a performance against Nottingham Forest, but I’ll take a chance on them here at bigger odds. Aston Villa to win and BTTS is 4/1 and that’s my pick.
Everton v Manchester United Prediction
Sun 26 Nov 16:30
This will probably be a horrible game to watch, but perfect for Sky Sports Super Sunday. There will be endless soundbites and fan protests (against the league) amid the turmoil of the points deduction. It might feel cliched to say Everton adopt a siege mentality and bounce back here but an Everton win was my pick before the points deduction was even announced. The Toffeess are steadily improving under Dyche, unsurprisingly, and United are going nowhere fast under Ten Haag. That last comment might be a slight exaggeration, but United are still in woeful form (W7 D0 L8) and ETH does not seem to be man to turn it around. Those seven wins have predominantly come against the weaker sides on the schedules, and I still cannot think of a big or notable win for Ten Haag’s side since beating City way back in January.
Since losing to Arsenal back in September, Everton are in decent form (W6 D1 L2). Their two losses were what most Toffee fans would consider typical Everton. A complacent home loss to Luton, throwing away an early lead, and a valiant but ultimately fruitless reverse at Anfield.
Goodison will be rocking for this one, and their home fans will be in full voice. On the face of it, Everton have been singled out for punishment by the FA, and the fans will be more behind the team than ever. United, on the other hand, are struggling to put together any decent performances and I don’t buy the argument they will somehow turn it on here. Everton to win at 9/5 is my bet.
Fulham v Wolves Prediction
Mon 27 Nov 20:00
I’m not sure why Fulham are favourites here and Wolves look great value at 2/1. They seem to be slightly underrated in the market after such a poor start to the season but Gary O’Neil has really turned things around. The loss of Pedro Neto was far from ideal but they look to have adapted smartly. Wolves played a more compact game against Tottenham and despite seeing much less of the ball than their visitors last week they produced the majority of the games attacking threat.
Fulham are in poor shape. They earned a valuable point against Arsenal back in August, and since then their only two wins have come against Luton Town and Sheffield United. They have five losses in that time and their only win in the last month came against Ipswich Town in the League Cup. Wolves to win at 2/1 is my pick here.
Premier League Best Bets:
Manchester City v Liverpool: City To Win & BTTS @ 2/1
Everton v Manchester United: Everton To Win @ 9/5
Fulham v Wolves: Wolves To Win @ 2/1
The below in a treble is 6/1 (no singles):
Burnley v West Ham: Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS @ Evens
Newcastle United v Chelsea: Over 2.5 Goals @ Evens
Brentford v Arsenal: Over 2.5 Goals @ 9/10