The Premier League kicks off on Friday and it is time to place some ante-post bets for the 2023/24 season.
Who Will Win The Premier League
The obvious place to start is the league winner. Manchester City are once again odds-on to retain their crown. The Gunners are next up at 5/1 with Liverpool (8/1) and Manchester United (11/1) rounding out the potential winners.
At these odds, Arsenal make the most sense. They pushed City until April before an untimely injury to stalwart center-back Saliba sent them into a tailspin. The addition of Jurien Timber should provide ample cover across the back, as too would the potential arrival of Brentford keeper Raya. Declan Rice and Kai Havertz represent significant upgrades to an already strong squad, plus Trossard gets a full preseason with the team. I am an Arsenal fan so I’m very possibly biased here, but they are clearly the best of the rest in the Premier League and should give Man City a run once again.
City are arguably in a weaker position than last season and I have no interest in backing them at 8/11. Kevin de Bruyne looks to be carrying niggling injuries, Mahrez and Gundogan have left the club and there are concerns around Bernardo Silva. This is not to sound pessimistic, City will certainly be in whatever title race comes to pass this season. They have the goal machine that is Erling Haaland up front and are reigning Champions of Europe. I am just not interested in taking them at such a low price.
Liverpool and Man United have both made some high-profile additions but I am not convinced either squad is hugely improved on last term. The arrival of Inter Milan goalkeeper André Onana addressed one of United’s more minor problems, and the signing of Rasmus Højlund has been blown completely out of proportion. The young Dane scored once against Lazio last season and the rest of his nine-goal haul came against teams in the relegation battle. United may well improve under another year of Erik ten Haag’s tutelage but I cannot see them making up the 15 points needed to win the league.
Liverpool have added Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai and this will certainly bolster their attack. However, Klopp’s side conceded more goals than any other team in the top half of the table last season and defense is still a major concern. VVD does not look the player of old and teams seem to have figured out Liverpool’s full-backs. It looks like Curtis Jones will start the season at the base of the midfield and that does not scream title-winning squad to me. There is also a question about general depth. Klopp has let a lot of squad players go, which is great, but none have been replaced, and his style of play is physically demanding. Not to mention Mo Salah will be headed to AFCON and the Europa League slog will stretch his thin squad even further. I can see Liverpool winning some high-scoring encounters but ultimately coming up short.
Official Pick: Arsenal to win the league without City 11/4
Arsenal outright is not an official pick because of my personal bias. That being said, I cannot make a case for United or Liverpool and have no interest in a 10-month bet at 8/11. If we exclude City from the betting there is no reason to think either Liverpool or United have closed the gap on Arsenal and 11/4 is a great price.
Who Will Be Relegated From The Premier League
Luton and Sheffield United are both heavily odds-on to go down and it is easy to see why. Their squads are not of Premier League caliber and they could be cut adrift sooner rather than later. With that leaving only one or two relegation spots up for grabs there is not a ton of value here. However, two big-name Premier League regulars I worry for are Everton (3/1) and West Ham (9/1).
Everton just about survived relegation last season and there are certainly still some gaps in that aging squad. A host of underperforming big names return from loan spells and Sean Dyche will need to put together a squad capable of picking up 35-40 points. The arrival of Ashley Young and Arnaut Danjuma will certainly help. As much as I doubt the Everton players, I do not fancy betting against Dyche.
The Hammers ended last season on a high but their ownership has contrived to mess things up spectacularly since then. Rice departing East London was no surprise to anyone, especially after Chairman David Sullivan admitted he had a gentleman’s agreement with the player allowing him to leave. So did West Ham plan for this eventuality by investing any potential sales windfall nice and early? Not at all. At the time of writing West Ham have signed not one single player. Manuel Lanzini, Gianluca Scamacca and Declan Rice headline the departures and the West Ham squad looks awfully thin. When you consider some key players’ recent injury history (Ings and Antonio in particular) and the brutal Thursday-Sunday slog of the Europa League things look bleak. The Irons were in the relegation scrap for a long part of last season and were only two wins above the drop in the end.
Official Pick: West Ham To Be Relegated From The Premier League 9/1
I have a soft spot for The Hammers and really don’t want to see them drop out of the top flight but I just cannot ignore such a big price. It feels like they have been in a relegation battle for most of their time in London Stadium and this is one of their worst squads in recent years.
Odds via B365Who Will Win The Premier League Handicap Betting
This is not a market I usually bet on but there seems to be some value this term. City give up at least 10 points to everyone so we can count them out immediately. Although they have dominated the honors in England lately, only one of their titles in the last 5 years would have covered this mark.
Arsenal (+10), Liverpool (+12) and United (+14) do not tempt either because that leaves them all within a game of each other. Next up is Chelsea (+18) and Newcastle (+18) and I do not expect either to feature in the title race at all. Pochettino has a lot to prove and has never hit the ground running at a new club. Newcastle have splashed the cash but that generally takes a season or two to click.
The three teams that do interest me are Brighton (+30), Aston Villa (+32) and Brentford (+40). Based on last season this would put all three clubs north of 90 points.
Brighton’s biggest win of the summer was managing to keep hold of Moisés Caicedo. The Ecuadorian is a supreme talent and Brighton’s refusal to sell him compared to their readiness to release Mac Alister says a lot in my opinion. The arrival of attacking flair in João Pedro, see-out-games experience in the shape of James Milner, and defensive reinforcement in Igor from Fiorentina leaves me optimistic for De Zebri’s side.
Unai Emery has done wonders at Villa and for some reason, many pundits are writing it off as a fluke or dumb luck. The Spaniard is one of the most underrated coaches around and has improved his squad significantly over the summer. Villa pounced to land Youri Tielemans from relegated Leicester, spent big to bring in Moussa Diaby from Leverkusen and added Emery’s former defensive rock Pau Torres from Villarreal. From staring down the barrel of relegation under Steven Gerrard, Aston Villa now have realistic expectations to improve on last season’s Conference League finish.
Brentford continue to surprise and giving them 40 points in the handicap market seems like a lot. They finished a mere two points off the European places last season and beat almost every one of the Big Six. Wins over Man City (home and away), Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham gave fans a lot to cheer about. However, I think they might have a slight drop-off this season. Brentford managed to surprise a lot of teams and that is a difficult trick to repeat. They were also fortunate in terms of some big refereeing calls and scheduling. They beat West Ham and Man City when those two sides had an eye on European finals, and beat Chelsea and Spurs at the tail end of miserable seasons. I do not expect Brentford to have a bad season, but maybe one that is a little underwhelming compared to 2022/23.
Official Pick: Aston Villa (+32) To Win the League Handicap Betting 10/1
This is Emery’s bread and butter and I expect Villa to upset many of the teams perceived to be above them. With that in mind, I will take Villa +32 to win the league. Their record against the “big” teams is decent and I can see them battling for the Top 4 come next Spring. They have strengthened in key positions and if Emery can continue last season’s form (P25 W15 D4 L6) this would put them above the 100 points in the handicap market.
Who Will Be Premier League Top Goalscorer
Almost certainly Haaland but I will not back him at 8/13.
Who Will Win Premier League Most Assists
Kevin de Bruyne (11/4) is the favorite but I have my doubts about his fitness. With that in mind, I’m happy to look further down the market. One that stands out to me is Phil Foden. Pep loves to tinker and he sees more in Foden than probably anyone else. If KDB has some injury problems I can see Foden’s role evolve a little. At 33/1 he seems overpriced for most assists.
I was initially tempted to include Mo Salah here. As the Liverpool legend gets on in years he will be able to get in behind less often. I can see his role becoming more of a supplier than a scorer and he looks a decent price at 14/1. However, with the Egyptian set to miss up to five games because of his AFCON duties, I’ll skip this one.
Official Pick: Phil Foden Most Assists In The Premier League 2023/24 @ 33/1
Smart Bets
Arsenal To Win The Premier League (without Manchester City) @ 11/4
West Ham To Be Relegated From The Premier League 9/1
Aston Villa To Win The Premier League (+32) Handicap Betting @ 10/1
Phil Foden Most Assists In The Premier League 2023/24 @ 33/1
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