Premier League Tips: Ten Hag’s Job On The Line At Anfield As United Face Liverpool

Premier League Tips: Ten Hag’s Job On The Line At Anfield As United Face Liverpool

LB shares his best Premier League bets for this weekend with a long shot in the Liverpool v United game rounding out a 31/1 treble.  

Nottingham Forest v Tottenham

Fri 15 Dec 20:00

Spurs head to The City Ground on Friday night to take on Forest in a game that is very hard to call. Nottingham Forest have one win in twelve games since besting Chelsea in early September and it is a minor miracle they are outside of the relegation zone. Their form is dire (W0 D1 L4) but to make matters worse there is little pattern to any of it. Thirteen of their sixteen games this season have been settled by a single goal or less, and oddly the most common scoreline they have produced is a 3-2 loss.

Tottenham’s form is not a whole lot better (W1 D1 L4) but their most recent result was a thumping 4-1 win over a freefalling Newcastle. As much as I think Spurs are not quite as good as their early season results, they are certainly not as bad as their November record suggests either. Rather than taking a punt on a result, I will back goals here.

Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS is 20/21 and that looks like great value. This has landed in each of Tottenham’s last seven games and Forest have a tendency to go toe-to-toe with the opposition. A high-scoring game settled by a single goal is what I expect and at just inside evens, goals are the smart bet.

Arsenal v Brighton

Sun 17 Dec 14:00

This is a value bet based on the odds and not a whole lot more. Arsenal to win and BTTS is 15/8 and that is a massive increase on the straight win at 4/9. The Gunners have the best defence in the league, and that cost me the last time I bet this market. However, Arteta’s men have managed just one clean sheet in their last six league games, and every single Brighton league game this season has seen both teams score.

Arsenal have a decent record at grinding out low-scoring away wins. However, counterintuitively, they have a worse defensive record at home. This seems to be at least in part down to their approach. They play a far more aggressive, and open, style of play at The Emirates, which often leaves them vulnerable to conceding on the counter-attack. I can see a 2-1 or 3-1 home win.

Liverpool v Manchester United

Sun 17 Dec 16:30

Situational betting is not all that popular with football punters but this game has thrown up an interesting angle at a big price. This fixture has not seen a draw in six installments stretching back to an FA Cup tie in 2021. However, seven of the ten meetings before that saw the spoils shared. In fact, there is evidence to show the likelihood of a draw increases by nearly a quarter in a derby match and I like that angle here.

United are a mess at the minute, and Liverpool are flying, but even still the pricing looks a little off. Klopp’s side are heavy favourites, and probably rightly so, but the draw still looks overpriced to me. Liverpool drew five at home last term and the United players really should be playing for their futures.

A draw would be tempting at 5/1 in almost any league game, but in a game like this, it feels way too generous to pass up on.

EPL Betting Tips

Nottingham Forest v Tottenham: Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS @ 20/21

Arsenal v Brighton: Arsenal To Win & BTTS @ 15/8

Liverpool v Manchester United: Match Result Draw @ 5/1

The above in a treble is a little over 31/1 with Bet365 (0.5U)

 

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European Football Punter Extraordinaire. Although claiming to support Arsenal around The Accademics office, he is a football hipster at heart - just don’t tell him that! Happiest cheering on goals and upsets in the unloved Serie B and Belgian First Division A. Not to mention being a closeted college football fan. His biggest claim to fame is winning the New England College Rugby Champions at the lofty heights of varsity Division IV. The less vocal Grangee owner in the group. Loves to tip a midfielder for a shot on target.
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