This weekend is the first half of the Premier League “winter break” so there are only five games to choose from. LB has one Premier League betting selection from each of Friday, Saturday and Sunday that combined for a little over 15/1.
Burnley v Luton Town
Fri 12 Jan 19:45
My initial thought on this game was a home win but at odds-on I’m not too keen. Despite being totally written off and priced at a paltry 2/7 to go down, Luton Town are showing signs of life. They have managed some decent results against the bottom five teams (W3 D1 L2) and a win this weekend could see them leapfrog Everton out of the relegation zone.
Burnley, for their part, are finally showing some fight. Vincent Kompany’s side picked up more points in December (7) than in the previous four months combined (4). Unfortunately for both of these teams, it could be too little too late, although if a miracle is on the cards then a win here is a must.
Rather than risking the result, I’m going to play it safe with goals. Over 2.5 Goals at evens looks like a steal and is my first bet of the weekend. Luton’s six games so far against the teams around them have seen at least three goals, as have seven of their eight away games. Burnley, despite being second-bottom, are one of the most open and attacking teams in the league and tend to score and concede in every game. Between both of these teams, they have managed three clean sheets in 39 games so far.
Chelsea v Fulham
Sat 13 Jan 12:30
This is another tough game to call but one bet that stands out is Cole Palmer to have two shots on target. The English youngster is hitting some decent form and his output in terms of shots has skyrocketed since the start of December. With Nicolas Jackson off to AFCON and Christopher Nkunku likely to miss the game with injury I fancy Palmer to have another big performance. Four of his last five goals have come at The Bridge and he looks a decent price to bag his eleventh of the season at 7/4. However, 2+ SOT is a better price at 9/4 and that will be my sole bet on Saturday.
Manchester United v Tottenham
Sun 14 Jan 16:30
I’m going to take a punt on this one and back Under 2.5 goals at a massive 8/5. Erik ten Hag is under severe pressure and I suspect his side will adopt the “first, don’t lose” approach that worked for them at Anfield. Spurs play with such wanton abandon that if United try to go toe-to-toe they could be eviscerated.
Ange “Mate” Postecoglou has brought in January reinforcements in the shape of Timo Werner and that alone makes the under look a decent bet. Tottenham’s structureless Ange-ball style is arguably the most entertaining to watch in the league. But, like many of the great entertainers that have gone before, you tend to win SFA. Postecoglu is no novice and he surely knows as much. The addition of Werner seems like a sober move from the Australian and I’m happy to read into it that things might calm down for Spurs a little.
Premier League Smart Bets
Burnley v Luton Town: Over 2.5 Goals @ Evens
Chelsea v Fulham: Cole Palmer 2+ SOT @ 9/4
Manchester United v Tottenham: Under 2.5 Goals @ 8/5
The above in a treble at 15.5/1 (0.5U)