Premier League Tips: Tricky Away Fixtures For Top Three

Premier League Tips: Tricky Away Fixtures For Top Three

LB shares his best Premier League bets for this weekend with the Top 3 all facing potentially tough away days. 

 This week sees a very strange quirk of scheduling that could play a huge factor in deciding where the Premier League trophy ends up this season. During the midweek fixtures on Amazon TV, Arsenal visited Luton Town and Man City traveled to Aston Villa. This weekend, the roles are reversed, with Arsenal heading to Aston Villa and Man City traveling to Luton. The Gunners came oh-so-close to slipping up at Kenilworth Road, requiring yet another Declan Rice late winner to snatch all three points. Time will tell how the other results pan out but a particularly spirited performance from either home side during either game could have a big impact on the table.

Crystal Palace v Liverpool Prediction

Sat 09 Dec 12:30

There seems to be a feeling that Selhurst is a bogey ground for Liverpool. However, they are unbeaten in South London since their infamous loss there in 2014 (W9 D1 L0). The only time Liverpool failed to win there in recent years was actually last season when they played out a goalless draw. That result feels unlikely to be repeated considering the high-scoring nature of the league this term.

The Arsenal fan in me would love to predict some heroic Palace performance but I cannot see how Hodgson’s side get anything from this game. They have one win since September, and that came against Burnley. Meanwhile, Liverpool’s only loss came courtesy of the most egregious VAR mistake of the season.

Making a case for the home side is tough here but if you had to point to something it would be some minor complacency from Liverpool. They conceded three midweek against Fulham, failed to win away to Luton and lost 3-2 to Toulouse. Away from home Liverpool have managed just one clean sheet in eleven outings, and that came against Sheffield United. Palance have scored in five of their last six. Liverpool to win and BTTS at 21/10 looks a good shout and is my first bet of the weekend.

Wolves v Nottingham Forest Prediction

Sat 09 Dec 15:00

This game feels mispriced to me. Wolves started the season terribly, but Gary O’Neil has steadied the ship. Results have remained somewhat inconsistent, especially on the road, but that is mostly down to some brutal VAR calls going against them. Despite those blips, Wolves are unbeaten at home since a mid-September loss to Liverpool.

Nottingham Forest have one win in their last eleven league games, and that was against an out-of-sorts Villa. Their away form is terrible this season (W1 D1 L6) and I cannot see how they trouble Wolves here. They have conceded 12 in their last four games and have one of the worst goals-against records in the league.

If there is one question mark over Wolves this season it has been their ability to score. However, since October they have been averaging almost two goals per game and that should be enough here. Wolves to win at 17/20 is a great price and is my second bet of the weekend.

Aston Villa v Arsenal Prediction

Sat 09 Dec 17:30

This is the game of the weekend. Villa picked up their most impressive win of the Emery era midweek by dismantling Man City. That being said, Pep’s side are a mere shadow of themselves when Rodri is out, and they have lost all five games without him this season. I have been high on Villa all season and backed them in the antepost handicap market, but I suspect they might struggle here.

Arsenal come into the game on a six-game winning streak. The first five of those saw Arteta’s side concede just three goals, and then they managed to concede three to lowly Luton Town on Tuesday. Two of those goals were howlers from Arsenal’s sometime-number-one Raya and on the whole, Arsenal dominated that game too. The Gunners have the best defence in the Premier League and if anyone can dent Aston Villa’s magnificent home record it’s the Salbia-Gabriel partnership.

Villa were 4/1 against City on Wednesday are a relatively meagre 23/10 here. Emery’s side are in great form but that feels like a bit of an overreaction. This might not seem like much of a reason to back the away side but it’s hard to see Villa beating both City and Arsenal in the same week. The Gunners have won four in a row against The Villians and I’m backing them to continue that run here at 11/10.

Premier League Smart Acca

Crystal Palace v Liverpool: Liverpool To Win & BTTS @ 21/10

Wolves v Nottingham Forest: Wolves To Win @ 17/20

Aston Villa v Arsenal: Arsenal To Win @ 11/10

The above in treble is 11/1

 

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European Football Punter Extraordinaire. Although claiming to support Arsenal around The Accademics office, he is a football hipster at heart - just don’t tell him that! Happiest cheering on goals and upsets in the unloved Serie B and Belgian First Division A. Not to mention being a closeted college football fan. His biggest claim to fame is winning the New England College Rugby Champions at the lofty heights of varsity Division IV. The less vocal Grangee owner in the group. Loves to tip a midfielder for a shot on target.
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