Serie A Predictions: A Milan Derby Betting Special

Serie A Predictions: A Milan Derby Betting Special

This week Enzo is focusing his attention on the Milan Derby and has three betting predictions for the big match lined up for us

The second Derby della Madonnina of the 2023/24 Serie A season is upon us and despite there being little to play for, the stakes could not be higher. Inter have a commanding 14 point lead at the top of the table and with only six games left to play, a 20th Scudetto for the Nerazzurri is virtually assured. However, what makes this Derby di Milano so consequential is that Inter will officially be crowned Champions with a victory on Monday night. Even though they cannot beat the all time points record of 102 set by Contes Juve in 2013/14, clinching the title at the San Siro by beating your biggest rivals would be a fairytale ending for Inzaghi’s side. It is also a humiliation that Milan will want to avoid at all costs.

Who will win the Milan Derby?

Trying to predict a winner in any derby is a tricky task but the Derby della Madonnina is notoriously difficult to call. In terms of recent form there is nothing to separate the sides. Inter are unbeaten in eight having (W6 D2 L0) while Milan suffered just one defeat (W5 D2 L1), a surprise 4-2 loss to Monza.

Historical h2h sheds very little light on the situation either. Inter have the slight advantage with four victories in the last eight compared to Milans three. One pattern that does emerge though is that the derbys tend to be pretty goaly affairs. Six of the previous eight have seen over 2.5 goals scored with three exceeding the 3.5 mark. Neither team have any reason to play defensively here so there should be plenty of goalmouth action and over 3.5 goals @ 2/1 looks very tempting.

Having said all that, there is a real gulf in class between the two teams which is evidenced by the 14 point gap. In the reverse fixture, Milan were on the receiving end of an historic 5-1 drubbing and even if a repeat of this is unlikely, Inter look good value for the win at 21/20.

Which players to watch in the Milan derby?

This seasons capocannoniere, Lautaro Martinez, is currently going through a dry patch. The Argentine has 23 goals so far but hasn’t found the net in his last five. In the reverse fixture he failed to get on the scoresheet despite his side scoring five times. If you fancy him to rediscover his shooting boots he is available to score anytime at 6/4.

A distant third in the capocannoniere standings is Milans Olivier Giroud. The veteran Frenchman has 13 goals to his name and has a habit of turning up in the big occasions. He can be got at 5/2.

Rafael Leao is the form player coming into the game. He has a total of eight goals this campaign but has three in his last three. The Portuguese winger scored the Rossoneri’s only goal back in September and Leao anytime scorer @ 16/5 is my favourite to find the net this time round.

An outsider worth chancing is Inters Davide Frattesi. The former Sassuolo man has not been a regular starter but has made 32 appearances off the bench. During those he has scored 5 goals including the winners against Udinese and Verona and one in the derby which was his debut strike. Frattesi is unlikely to start on Monday but will probably come on for the last 20 mins or so as he usually does. As an outside bet, Frattesi last goalscorer @ 10/1 is one that I like.

Though not as prestigious as the title of Capocannoniere, top assister (if that is a word) is no less important. The standings are crammed with representatives from both sides. Giroud and Leao top the table with 8 apiece, followed closely behind in second by Marcus Thuram on 7. The man that interests me however is Inters Federico Dimarco who currently sits in third with 6 assists. The wingback has a sweet left foot and is the Nerazzurris go to man for corners and freekicks. For me, a Dimarco anytime assist @ 5/1 is the value bet of the market and is my final Serie A prediction for the Milan Derby.

Serie A Betting Predictions

AC Milan v Inter: Over 3.5 goals @ 2/1

AC Milan v Inter: Leao anytime scorer @ 16/5 

AC Milan v Inter: Dimarco anytime assist @ 5/1

 

Enzo publishes his Serie predictions here every Thursday. Follow Enzo and TheACCAdemics to get all our weekly football betting tips first!

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The self-proclaimed Italian Stallion. Our boots on the ground so to speak. TheACCAdemic’s Serie A Supremo. His time as a Roma fan has led him to the “hard to support” end of betting and he is no stranger to tipping an unders bet or a draw. Don’t let that put you off. Week in week out Enzo finds value in Italy by avoiding the big names and ploughing his own furrow. To this day he remains the only man in Ireland to own a jersey with Philippe Mexès on the back.
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