Serie A Predictions: Over-priced hosts worth backing in the Derby d'Italia

Italian football returns after the international break and Enzo has three Serie A betting predictions lined up including one for the Derby d’Italia when Juventus meet Inter

AC Milan v Fiorentina Prediction

Sat 25th Nov 19:45

Serie A seems to be the place where veteran attackers find a new lease of life in the twilight of their careers. Luca Toni, Antonio Di Natale and Fillippo Inzaghi all spring to mind but this season’s version is Giacomo Bonaventura. The 34 year old has scored five goals in 12 appearances for Fiorentina and earned a recall to the National team. Italy headcoach, Luciano Spalletti even dubbed him ” The Italian Bellingham” which says a lot about the state of the Azzurri forward line.

Overblown comparisons aside, Jack has been playing some great football of late and should relish the opportunity to line up against his former club, Milan, on Saturday. The Rossoneri are experiencing a bit of a rough patch and have just one win (W1 D2 L2) in their last 5 league outings and have conceded in four. Over 2.5 match goals is generously priced at Evs and I recommend backing it but my Serie A betting prediction for this one is Giacomo Bonaventura anytime scorer @ 9/2.

Cagliari v Monza Prediction

Sun 26th Nov 11:30

Cagliari endured an awful start to the season, scoring just a single goal in their opening five games and not winning in eight. Everything changed in recent weeks and the Isolani look like a completely new team. An expected loss to Juventus on matchday 11 was preceded by two wins and a draw. During that four-match period, Ranieri’s side scored 9 goals, 6 more than they managed in the previous eight games.

I fancy Cagliari’s goal glut to continue when they meet Monza on Sunday. Their opponents are not known for their scoring prowess but two of Monza’s last five have gone over 2.5 goals. The same can be said for Cagliari’s last seven games so Over 2.5 goals @ Evs looks like a price worth taking.

Juventus v Inter Milan Prediction

Sun 26th Nov 19:45

The Derby d’Italia is, more often than not, one of the most consequential fixtures in determining where the Scudetto is destined and this edition is no different. Even at this early stage in the season Juventus and Inter are beginning to pull away from the chasing pack. Inter top the table on 31 points with Juve close behind on 29. Milan, in 3rd, are 6 points further back.

As the table suggests there is very little to separate the sides. Regarding recent form, Juve are unbeaten in seven (W6 D1 L0) and Inter in six (W5 D1 L0). Defensively both teams have been rock solid and boast the two best back lines in terms of goals conceded in Serie A. Allegri’s men have shipped seven goals, four of which were against Sassuolo, while Inzaghi’s side are one better having conceded only six. The discernible difference between the two is when it comes to goals scored. The Nerazzurri have scored a whopping 10 more goals in the league than their opponents largely due to the man leading the Capocannoniere chart, Lautaro Martinez.

Overall, Juventus have a fairly strong record against their historic rivals (W6, D2 L2). The Bianconeri won the reverse fixture last year and also triumphed 1-0 at the Meazza thanks to an early Filip Kostic strike. Like I said, this will be an extremely tight encounter but given their historical record and home advantage,it surprising to see a Juventus win @ 12/5 so generously priced and it should be taken advantage of.