Enzo served up another profitable week of Italian football selections before the International break and he returns buoyant with three more bets for Serie A matchday 8
Inter Milan v Roma
Sat 1st Oct 17:00
Things have not been going to plan for Simone Inzaghi and the Nerazzurri this campaign. Already, Inter have lost three games, just one less than their total for the entirety of last season. After seven games they are five points adrift of Napoli at the summit which is not a great place to be for the pre-season favourites.
Roma started the season brilliantly by picking up 10 points from a possible 12 which fuelled talk of a scudetto challenge. However, that that was swiftly put to bed by subsequent defeats to Udinese and Atalanta. Despite winning the Conference League, Roma’s collywbbles when it comes to triumphing in crunch games against “bigger” opponents don’t seem to have been banished.
If ever there was a time to back a Roma win against their old rivals this is probably it but notwithstanding Inter’s tribulations, I still can’t see it. History doesn’t favour the Giallorossi (W0 D6 L4) who haven’t tasted victory against the Nerazzurri in over ten league attempts. Even though they haven’t managed a win, a stalemate has been the most common outcome between the two so I’m siding with the familiar and backing the draw @ 11/4.
Sampdoria v Monza
Sun 2nd Oct 14:00
Monza started the season with an almost totally new squad from the one that earned the club promotion to Serie A and there have been even more changes since. Veteran defender Andrea Rannochia terminated his contract by mutual consent but more significantly Giovanni Stroppa was sacked from his position as head coach. After picking up just one point from six games, Silvio Berlusconi threatened to personally intervene in any tactical decisions but then opted instead to appoint former player and youth team coach Raffaele Palladino as manager. In his opening game in charge Palladino earned Monza their first three points by dispatching a ten-man Juve 1-0.
Sampdoria have continued where they left off last season and have yet to win a game (W0 D2 L5). Samp have had a tough opening run of matches which included Lazio, Milan, Juventus and Atalanta but they were comprehensively trounced 4-0 by Salernitana and lost 2-1 to Spezia so their lack of points cannot be totally attributed to an unlucky fixture list. Scoring goals has been the Blucerchiati’s main problem and they have only managed four in seven outings.
To give Giovanni Stroppa some credit, it is not an easy task to be given a whole new squad of players and expect instant results. Monza did look like they were improving with every game under his guidance but it obviously wasn’t happening fast enough for Berlusconi and Galliani. Anyway, I expect them to build on their first win and pick up another three points against fairly abysmal opponents. Monza Win @ 2/1 is my second Italian football bet of the weekend.
Verona v Udinese
Mon 3rd Oct 19:45
Udinese are without doubt the surprise of the season. The Friulani find themselves in third with 16 points as well as being joint topscorers alongside Napoli. Away from home, Udinese have racked up seven goals, all their games have gone over 2.5 but they haven’t yet managed to keep a cleansheet.
In contrast, Verona have been thoroughly disappointing since the departure of Tudor, Barak and Simeone. They are currently just a point clear of the dropzone and it looks like it’s going to be a long season for the Scaligeri. However, at the Bentegodi, Verona have been finding the net which is more that can be said for the other relegation candidates. Two of their three home games have exceeded the 2.5 mark, the only one that hasn’t was against Atalanta who have the second meanest defence in Europe.
Over 2.5 Goals @ 5/6 looks like an excellent price for any game involving Udinese in their current form, especially when facing porous opponents who also have the ability to find the net themselves.
Smart Bets
Sampdoria v Monza: Monza Win @ 2/1
Verona v Udinese: Over 2.5 Goals @ 5/6
Inter Milan v Roma: Draw @ 11/4
