Enzo has three big priced Serie A selections, including a 6/1 shot, for this weekend’s Italian football action
Fiorentina v AC Milan
Sat 4th Mar 19:45
Barring a collapse of epic proportions from the league leaders Napoli, the title race is all but over. Milan’s scudetto defence was ended by a rotten January run which saw them drop down to 6th position after only picking up 2 points from a possible 15 . However, the Rossoneri have since steadied the ship with three wins on the trot and are now back inside the top four.
On Saturday, Pioli’s side will travel to Florence to face a below par Fiorentina. A trip to the Franchi is never an easy assignment but this season it has become less of a fortress than it was in previous years. On home soil (W4 D4 L4) La Viola have failed to beat an opponent outside the bottom five.
Having said all that, Fiorentina at home will not be swatted aside easily. They held Juve and Napoli to draws and three of their four defeats were by a one goal margin. Milan cannot afford to be distracted by the return leg with Tottenham, especially with the domestic competition for the European places being so hotly contested, so I expect them just to shade this one. Milan to win by 1 goal @ 16/5 is an excellent price and has been the margin of victory in all but one of their away triumphs.
Sampdoria v Salernitana
Sun 5th Mar 14:00
Salernitana’s Davide Nicola saga was finally put to bed last week when he was replaced at the helm by former Fiorentina manager Paulo Sousa. The Portuguese tactician had an immediate impact when his side ended a three game losing streak by emphatically trouncing Monza 3-0. The victory gives the Granata some much needed breathing room over their relegation rivals but they still have a lot more work to do if they are to stay up.
The same cannot be said for struggling Sampdoria who were beaten by Lazio at the Olimpico. The Blucerchiati have not won in 8 games and to make matters worse, they now sit rock bottom after being leapfrogged by Cremonese who collected their first three points of the season on Monday evening.
Without a drastic turnaround in front of goal, Sampdoria are heading for Serie B in 2023/24. Any team with an average of 0.46 goals scored per game cannot realistically hope of staying in the top flight and the team looks resigned to that fact. Salernitana on the other hand have always had the potential to pick up the odd win and Sousa has given them that ooomph to go on and do so. How long the new manager bounce factor will last is another question but I fancy a second Salernitana win @ 23/10 on Sunday to put even more daylight between themselves and the bottom three.
Something I rarely do is back two selections in the same game however this week is an exception. One of the first changes Paulo Sousa made to his starting line up was to move Antonio Candreva from the wing into a trequartista role behind the two strikers in order to make the most of his creativity and tactical intelligence. This proved to be an inspired decision as the veteran went on to assist Salernitana’s first and to score their third goal against Monza. Given his new position I wouldn’t be surprised to see him having a similar impact on Sunday, in fact he almost seems predestined to score as so many old heroes do against the clubs that once adored them. Antonio Candreva anytime scorer @ 6/1 will be my final Serie A bet for the weekend.
Smart Bets
Fiorentina v AC Milan: Milan to win by 1 goal @ 16/5
Sampdoria v Salernitana: Salernitana win @ 23/10
Sampdoria v Salernitana: Antonio Candreva anytime scorer @ 6/1
